Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim 20 September 2026 Prediction

Hoffenheim recorded their first win of the season in the previous round, beating Stuttgart 2-1, and will look to build on that result against Bundesliga newcomer Paderborn. The hosts have struggled following promotion, collecting just one point from three matches without scoring. They may still have an opportunity here, as Hoffenheim played a European fixture in midweek.

Attacking Struggles

Paderborn earned a point in the opening round with a scoreless draw against Mainz. The schedule then became more difficult, with consecutive shutout losses to Freiburg (0-1) and Borussia Dortmund (0-3). With one point and no goals through three rounds, Paderborn have made the weakest start of the Bundesliga’s three promoted teams.

Their lack of creativity is the main concern. Ralf Kettemann’s team failed to record a single shot on target against either Mainz or Borussia Dortmund. Paderborn also rank last in the league for expected goals, producing just 2.00 xG across three matches.

Their defensive numbers have been more encouraging. Paderborn have allowed four goals, the seventh-best record in the Bundesliga. They have also posted one of the league’s best expected goals against figures, with 4.24 xGA through three rounds. Home-field advantage could also help. Paderborn avoided defeat in eight of their final nine home games in the 2. Bundesliga last season.

Inconsistent Form and Defensive Problems

Hoffenheim have made an uneven start to the season, opening their Bundesliga campaign with losses to Cologne (2-3) and Borussia Dortmund (2-3). They led in both matches but failed to earn a point. A 2-1 win over Stuttgart in the third round provided a brief improvement.

Hoffenheim began their UEFA Europa League league-phase campaign away to Greek side OFI on Thursday. Christian Ilzer’s team entered as the favorite but lost 0-2. Poor finishing proved decisive. Hoffenheim attempted 21 shots and generated 1.74 xG without scoring.

Their overall attacking output remains solid, with six Bundesliga goals from 6.37 xG, the sixth-best mark in the league. The defense has been less reliable. Hoffenheim have conceded nine goals across their last four competitive matches from 7.61 xGA.

Paderborn vs Hoffenheim Predicted Lineup

Paderborn (3-5-2): Noll; ter Horst, Scheller, Hansen; Curda, Ulrich, Castaneda, Vidovic, Obermair; Philipp, Pieringer

Unavailable: Awortwie-Grant, Gayret, Klaas (all injured); Eickel, Michel (both doubtful)

Manager: Ralf Kettemann

Hoffenheim (4-4-2): Baumann; Coufal, Kabak, Hajdari, Rots; Conte, Avdullahu, Burger, Daghim; Lemperle, Hlozek

Unavailable: Prass (doubtful)

Manager: Christian Ilzer

Referee: Daniel Schlager

Schlager generally takes a measured approach. Across his last 20 Bundesliga assignments, he has averaged 3.75 yellow cards and 20.7 fouls per game. He has also issued five red cards and awarded four penalties during that span.

Paderborn vs Hoffenheim Prediction: Paderborn Double Chance

Main prediction: Hoffenheim have lost three of their last four competitive matches. Fatigue may also be a factor after Thursday’s European fixture in Greece. Paderborn can rely on their organized defense as they look to secure a positive result at home. The recommended bet is Paderborn double chance at odds of 2.24.

Totals prediction: Hoffenheim scored twice in each of their first three Bundesliga matches, but their attacking performance against OFI was inefficient. It was the first time they had failed to score this season. Paderborn have conceded only four league goals and own one of the competition’s best xGA figures at 4.24. At the other end, they rank last with 2.00 xG and have yet to score. A low-scoring game is likely, making under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.65 the preferred totals bet.