Parma vs Genoa 20 September 2026 Prediction

Parma finished last season in mid-table, only five points outside the top 10. This year, however, they could face a relegation battle after taking just one point from their first four matches. Improving that record before the international break will not be easy, as Parma are winless in their last four head-to-head meetings with Genoa.

League’s Worst Attack

Carlos Cuesta is still regarded as a promising manager, but Parma have struggled early in his second season. Their defensive approach is no longer producing results. Parma’s only point came against another struggling side, Monza, in a 1-1 draw in which their opponents created far more chances, winning the expected goals battle 1.70 to 0.74. Como were also clearly superior in the previous round. Parma scored their only goal in stoppage time after the opposition lost concentration.

Parma were not particularly productive in attack last season either, and they are now without Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, an important link between defense and midfield. Their main playmaker, Adrian Bernabe, is also yet to return to his best after injury. The hosts are averaging only 0.73 xG per game, the worst mark in Serie A.

Another Slow Start for Genoa

Genoa have started a third consecutive season in the relegation zone. In each of the previous two campaigns, a poor opening run led to the manager being dismissed. Daniele De Rossi is also under pressure, with his team producing neither strong results nor convincing performances. Genoa earned their only point in the previous round with a 1-1 draw against Frosinone. Even against the newly promoted side, Genoa lost the expected goals battle at home, 1.96 to 1.85.

Like Cuesta, De Rossi prioritizes defense. However, Genoa have not been solid at the back, allowing an average of two goals per game. The visitors will also be without captain Johan Vasquez, who is suspended after being sent off against Frosinone. The Mexico international is not only their defensive leader but also a threat in attack. He scored the winner in the 1-0 Coppa Italia round-of-32 victory over Sudtirol.

Parma vs Genoa Predicted Lineup

Parma (3-5-2): Corvi; Delprato, Troilo, D. Carlos; Britschgi, Sierro, Keita, Fabbian, Valeri; Romero, Lontani

Unavailable: Nicolussi Caviglia (injury)

Manager: Carlos Cuesta

Genoa (3-4-1-2): Bijlow; Marcandalli, Ostigard, Puzcka; Ehizibue, Sow, Frendrup, Ellertsson; Baldanzi; Osmajic, Colombo

Unavailable: Havel, Nuredini, Venturino, Amorim (all injured), Vasquez (suspended)

Manager: Daniele De Rossi

Parma vs Genoa Prediction: Draw

Main prediction: Both teams have made poor starts and sit near the bottom of the table. Neither side has recorded a Serie A win, and neither has won a match on expected goals. Genoa will be without defensive leader Johan Vasquez, but Parma may struggle to take advantage because they have the league’s least productive attack. The teams have already faced opponents of a similar level this season. Parma played Cagliari and Monza, while Genoa faced Frosinone. Two of those three games ended level, as did both head-to-head meetings last season. The main selection is therefore a draw at odds of 3.04.

Totals prediction: Meetings between Parma and Genoa have consistently been low-scoring over the past four years. Their last three head-to-head games produced only one goal in total. Both teams are again using conservative tactics this season, making under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.67 another option.