Utah Mammoth vs Tampa Bay Lightning 25 October 2026 Prediction

Utah and Tampa Bay are both fourth in their respective conferences. The Mammoth have won just one of their four meetings with the Lightning, who have a chance to move into the Eastern Conference’s top three.

Utah Is Fourth in the West

Utah remains behind Seattle, Vegas, and Edmonton in the Western Conference standings. A recent loss to Seattle cost the Mammoth a chance to close the gap. Utah scored twice on the power play and led 3.7 to 2.4 in expected goals, but Karel Vejmelka stopped only 81% of the shots he faced.

Utah also played Pittsburgh in a 5-4 game a few days earlier. Pittsburgh led by three goals in the third period before Utah closed the gap. The Mammoth outshot the Penguins 29-19.

Utah Predicted Lineup: Vejmelka (Cossa) — Sergachev, Weegar — Keller, Schmaltz, Crouse

Other Players: Defensemen — Schmidt, Peeke, DeSimone, Simashev; forwards — Cooley, Trocheck, Guenther, Lee, Hayton, Yamamoto, McBain, Stenlund, Booth

Unavailable: Carcone (injured); Marino (questionable)

Manager: André Tourigny

Tampa Bay's Recent Form

After a 5-1 loss to the Rangers to open the season, Tampa Bay recovered and moved into the Eastern Conference’s top four. The Lightning have won seven of their last eight games. Their only loss in that stretch was another defeat to the Rangers, 4-1.

Tampa Bay then beat Seattle 4-3 in overtime, Vegas 6-2, and Vancouver 4-2. Against the Golden Knights, the Lightning were outshot 34-21 and trailed 4.1 to 2.9 in expected goals, but converted more of their chances.

Tampa Bay Predicted Lineup: Vasilevskiy (Hildeby) — Moser, Carlson — Hagel, Viel, Kucherov

Other Players: Defensemen — McDonagh, Cernak, Lilleberg, Hedman; forwards — Guentzel, Point, Goncalves, Mikheyev, Girgensons, Holmberg, Truchon-Viel, Geekie, D’Astous

Unavailable: Gourde (injured); Cirelli (questionable)

Manager: Jon Cooper

Utah's Head-to-Head Record

Utah and Tampa Bay have met four times, with the Mammoth winning once, 6-4. The Lightning won both meetings last season: 4-2 on the road and 2-0 at home. They scored both goals on the power play in the 2-0 win.

Key Stats

Utah ranks second in the league in expected goals, generating 3.8 xG per game.

The Mammoth have converted a league-leading 38.5% of their power-play opportunities.

Tampa Bay averages 1.2 first-period goals, among the five highest marks in the league.

Utah vs Tampa Bay Prediction: Utah to Win at 2.15

Main prediction: Utah has won three of its last four home games. Tampa Bay will be playing its second game in less than 24 hours after facing Colorado, and the Lightning have lost twice on the road to the Rangers. The pick is Utah to win at 2.15, with a projected score of 4-3.

Goals prediction: Utah has scored 20 goals and allowed 21 over its last five games. Tampa Bay has scored 19 in the same span, including six against Vegas. Three of the teams’ four meetings have produced more than six goals. The pick is over 6.5 total goals at 2.14.