Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy 19 September 2026 Prediction

  Prediction by   Gevorg Danielyan     September 19, 2026 

Arman Tsarukyan was originally scheduled for an intriguing rematch with reigning BMF champion Charles Oliveira. However, “Do Bronx” withdrew, and the No. 2-ranked lightweight will instead face the less established Brazilian Mauricio Ruffy.

Ruffy, a striker known for his McGregor-style stance, has already recorded two notable knockouts this year, stopping Rafael Fiziev and Michael Chandler. Tsarukyan represents a significant step up in competition. A win, however, would immediately put Ruffy in the title picture.

Arman Tsarukyan

Arman Tsarukyan has progressed from his competitive UFC debut against Islam Makhachev to becoming one of the division’s leading title contenders. Against Mauricio Ruffy, the Armenian needs to confirm the status he earned with wins over Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, and Dan Hooker. Ruffy carries more knockout power than Hooker but presents a similar stylistic matchup: a dedicated striker with weaknesses in takedown defense and on the ground.

Tsarukyan is a well-rounded fighter with an excellent freestyle wrestling base and holds the Master of Sport designation. His grappling has also helped him succeed in RAF, where the Akhalkalaki native has seven wins and one loss, against Colby Covington. Tsarukyan has improved his striking, but he rarely stays on the feet for long against dangerous kickboxers. He usually looks for a takedown as soon as the opportunity appears.

Titles: Former MFP champion (2017-18, one title defense)

Mauricio Ruffy

Mauricio Ruffy is one of the lightweight division’s most dangerous strikers and has consistently backed up that reputation with knockout wins over credible opponents. His stoppage of Rafael Fiziev was particularly impressive, as Fiziev is an accomplished Muay Thai fighter. Ruffy has earned five UFC victories in less than three years, moving into the top eight of the rankings.

His only UFC loss is more relevant to this matchup. Benoit Saint Denis repeatedly took Ruffy down using different entries and quickly established dominant positions on the ground. The fight ended with a second-round submission. Tsarukyan’s wrestling presents a similar but potentially more difficult problem for a fighter with unreliable takedown defense.

Notable Fights

Arman Tsarukyan: He is on a five-fight winning streak that includes victories over No. 3-ranked Charles Oliveira, No. 13 Dan Hooker, and No. 15 Beneil Dariush.

Mauricio Ruffy: Rafael Fiziev, ranked No. 10, is his only win over a current top-15 opponent.

Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy Prediction: Tsarukyan to Win in Rounds 1-2

The odds accurately reflect the gap between these fighters. There have been several major upsets in 2026, but another one appears unlikely here. Ruffy is clearly the better pure striker and would have the advantage in a kickboxing match. MMA, however, allows Tsarukyan to attack the Brazilian’s biggest weakness. The loss to Saint Denis showed how vulnerable Ruffy can be against a capable grappler.

Training with Alexander Volkanovski may have helped Ruffy, but one year is unlikely to have been enough to bring his takedown defense up to the required level. He also spent January preparing for Fiziev, another pure striker. Tsarukyan is arguably the best wrestler in the lightweight division, with varied takedown entries and excellent ground-and-pound. Ruffy is unlikely to reach the third round. The main bet is Tsarukyan to win in Rounds 1-2 at 2.75.