Argentina vs Iceland 10 June 2026 Prediction

At the 2018 World Cup, Iceland unexpectedly took points from Argentina (1:1) in the group stage, but this time the teams meet in a different setting. The South Americans are making their final preparations before trying to defend their World Cup title, while the Scandinavians will play the role of a sparring partner and watch the tournament from home.

Argentina Will Test the Core Lineup

South American World Cup qualifying, where La Albiceleste finished first with an eight-point lead, ended last September. Since then, the team has won six straight friendlies. However, Venezuela (1:0) was the only serious opponent in that stretch. Argentina generated 2.88 expected goals (xG) in that match. In qualifying, they averaged 1.12 xG while scoring 1.72 goals per game. The difference is that Lionel Messi played in those competitive matches and recorded 8 goals plus 3 assists. The captain is available now, but the coaching staff does not want to take unnecessary risks with him.

Argentina played their first summer friendly last Sunday. Against Honduras (2:0), Lionel Scaloni gave minutes to the near reserves, but one of the key players still decided the match: Lautaro Martinez finished with a goal and an assist.

It is logical to expect a lineup closer to the first-choice group here. The only player who should not be expected to start is Emiliano Martinez, as the clear No. 1 has not fully recovered from a finger fracture. Geronimo Rulli is expected to replace him. Scaloni said he would give playing time to all three goalkeepers, and the Marseille keeper was the only one who did not appear against Honduras. Nico Paz, Nico Gonzalez, and Julian Alvarez have recovered from their issues and could even form the starting front three.

Iceland Are Highly Motivated

The Vikings did not qualify for the World Cup, but they gave top-level France plenty of problems (1:2, 2:2). Statistically, though, the opponent still dominated: 1.78 xG for Iceland compared to 4.97 for France. Iceland also outperformed expectations in their March friendly against Canada (2:2), where the xG figures were 0.68 to 2.33.

Their previous unofficial match against Japan (0:1) was played before the international window began, so several players from European clubs were unavailable. A similar situation occurred in February against Mexico (0:4), so those results should not be overvalued.

Isak Johannesson, Albert Gudmundsson, Hakon Arnar Haraldsson, and Orri Oskarsson recently joined the camp. These players from top leagues form the core of the national team. All of them are likely to start. It did not take much convincing to get the players to travel across the world: “You do not get the chance every day to play against Messi and his team, the reigning world champions, especially in their final match before the World Cup. This game will attract a lot of attention,” manager Arnar Gunnlaugsson said.

Argentina vs Iceland Predicted Lineup

Argentina (4-3-3): Rulli – Molina, Romero, Martinez, Tagliafico – De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister – Paz, Alvarez, Gonzalez

Out: E. Martinez, Balerdi (both injured), Acuna, Buendia (both not in the squad), Montiel (questionable)

Manager: Lionel Scaloni

Iceland (4-4-2): Olafsson – Thorarilsson, Hermannsson, H. Magnusson, Tomasson – Thorsteinsson, Johannesson, Haraldsson, A. Gudmundsson – Oskarsson, Sigurdarson

Out: S. Magnusson (injured), J. Gudmundsson, A. Gudjohnsen (both not in the squad)

Manager: Arnar Gunnlaugsson

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Argentina vs Iceland Prediction: Iceland Handicap +1.5

• Main Prediction: The Vikings have already shown they can compete well against top national teams. That was not limited to their matches against France. Under the previous manager, Iceland even beat England (1:0) in a friendly. Based on the squad and Gunnlaugsson’s comments, it is clear that Iceland are highly motivated to show their best level. Unlike Argentina, who have the World Cup just ahead, Iceland do not need to manage their energy in the same way. The nominal hosts went through South American qualifying comfortably, but away from home they won by more than one goal in only two of nine matches. This game will be played at a neutral venue, which helps Argentina somewhat. Still, Scaloni does not plan to take major risks with Messi’s fitness, and without him the world champions are less effective in the final third. We suggest taking Iceland +1.5 at 2.34 and a 2:1 correct score at 9.00.
• Goals Prediction: La Albiceleste are reliable defensively: across their last six unofficial matches, they conceded only once, while in qualifying they allowed 0.6 xG and 0.55 goals per game on average. However, that should not discourage Iceland. As noted above, against Canada and France they made the most of limited attacking chances. The same can be said of their home match against Ukraine (3:5), where the Scandinavians scored three goals from 0.98 xG. Argentina are also expected to start Rulli in goal instead of Martinez. It is worth considering Both Teams to Score — Yes at 2.26.