Iraq vs Venezuela 10 June 2026 Prediction

The 2026 World Cup has not even started yet, but one of its biggest underdogs has already produced a surprise. Iraq held Spain to a 1:1 draw and gained important confidence. The team has already arrived in the United States, where it will play its final friendly against Venezuela, a side very different from La Roja.

Iraq Are Making a Statement Before the Tournament

Iraq qualified for the 2026 World Cup in dramatic fashion through the intercontinental playoffs. In the decisive match, they beat Bolivia (2:1) as underdogs. Overall, this team is comfortable playing as the second side. Iraq allow opponents to create chances, but those chances do not always turn into goals. The Lions of Mesopotamia have often defended better than expected. During World Cup qualifying, Graham Arnold’s team allowed 0.90 expected goals against (xGA) per match on average, but conceded only 0.65 actual goals per game.

Iraq did not face the strongest opponents in qualifying, but against their first top-level opponent, they used the same approach again. Spain created 1.42 expected goals (xG), but scored only once. The emotional situation around the team may be tense. In the match against La Roja, center back Ahmed Yahya suffered a back injury and will now miss the 2026 World Cup. Also, some players were reportedly questioned for a long time at Chicago airport, while the team photographer was not allowed into the United States, adding more pressure around the squad.

Venezuela Are Building a New Team

Venezuela failed to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. The team finished 10 points behind the top six, and the friendlies that followed again showed the need for a generational change. Even during qualifying, their average expected goals and actual goals numbers were modest at 0.91 and 1.00, respectively. Against stronger opponents in friendlies, their issues with chance creation and finishing became even more obvious. Against Argentina (0:1), La Vinotinto generated only 0.37 expected goals and did not score. Against Canada (0:2), they finished with 1.15 xG but still failed to find the net. Whether Venezuela create a lot or very little, goals have been difficult to come by.

The new manager did not wait long to make changes. He moved on from Venezuela’s all-time leading scorer Salomon Rondon, long-time captain Tomas Rincon, and several other experienced veterans, turning instead to new faces. For example, 18-year-old Marco Libri made his debut against Turkey (1:2). Players who had recently been reserves also received more minutes, but the progress was only partial. Venezuela again produced a low 0.42 expected goals, although this time they outperformed the underlying numbers and turned one of their few chances into a goal.

Iraq vs Venezuela Predicted Lineup

Iraq (4-4-2): Basil – Ali, Hashim, Tahseen, Doski – Bayesh, Al-Ammari, Ismael, Farji – Al-Hamadi, Hussein

Out: Yahya (injured)

Manager: Graham Arnold

Venezuela (4-2-3-1): Contreras – Aramburu, Ferraresi, Makoun, Quintero – Casseres, Herrera – Martinez, Segovia, Mendoza – Ramirez

Out: –

Manager: Oswaldo Vizcarrondo

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Iraq vs Venezuela Prediction: Iraq Not to Lose

• Main Prediction: Iraq’s coaching staff deliberately chose two very different opponents for these friendlies. Against Spain, the Lions of Mesopotamia played from a defensive structure, showed they can absorb pressure, and defended better than advanced metrics suggested. Before the Venezuela match, Graham Arnold said he plans to start Aymen Hussein, who scored the crucial goal against Bolivia, and that the team will be instructed to play more proactively. This will be Iraq’s final test before the 2026 World Cup, so they are likely to use their strongest available lineup. Iraq have been in the United States since June 7, so they have had enough time to adapt to the local conditions. Venezuela, meanwhile, are only beginning their rebuild. Their new leaders and debutants have not fully settled, and the team still lacks clear ideas in attack. World Cup qualifying and recent friendlies showed that Venezuela allow roughly twice as much as they create, with 0.78 xG for and 1.63 xG against. That makes them more likely to concede than to score. Taking all factors into account, it makes sense to back Iraq not to lose at 1.69.
• Goals Prediction: As noted above, Iraq are expected to focus more on attacking play here. In 7 of their last 9 matches across all competitions, the Lions of Mesopotamia have scored at least once. Venezuela also have new attacking options, and they may look more confident in their second match together. Considering that the South Americans found a goal against Turkey despite producing limited expected goals, Both Teams to Score — Yes at 2.00 is worth considering.