Japan vs Sweden 25 June 2026 Prediction

Prediction by John Rowland • Tipsters Editorial Team

This is a decisive match in Group F. Both teams have almost secured a place in the playoffs, but both can still improve their positions. Japan will try to overtake the Netherlands on goal difference, while Sweden can move past Japan and take second place. Or the teams may avoid unnecessary risks and accept a draw.

Japan Are Built on Balance and Organization

Japan passed their test against the group favorite, the Netherlands (2-2). They came from behind twice, kept their structure, and rescued the match late from a corner. Against Tunisia (4-0), Japan controlled the game from start to finish and did not allow a single shot on target. They are allowing only 0.41 xGA per match. Only Spain have a better mark at 0.15. That is important before facing Sweden, whose main strength is attack.

Japan’s defenders will focus heavily on Sweden’s forwards, Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak:

“They are without doubt two of the strongest forwards at this tournament. We will try to make things as uncomfortable as possible for them. They need to feel that we are always close,” Japan defender Shogo Taniguchi said.

To handle two physically strong forwards, Hajime Moriyasu is likely to prefer taller center backs. Tsuyoshi Watanabe (184 cm) and Taniguchi (185 cm) could again make way for Takehiro Tomiyasu (187 cm) and Ko Itakura (188 cm). Both play for Ajax, which also helps in terms of chemistry.

Takefusa Kubo has still not returned to training after injury. He is an important attacking player, but the previous matches showed that Japan have enough options without him: Junya Ito, who replaced him, scored in the last game, while Ayase Ueda already has 2 goals and 1 assist at the World Cup. Japan should have plenty of possession, so Daichi Kamada is more likely to start as the attacking midfielder than the faster Daizen Maeda, who is better suited to counterattacking football. The coaching staff have already used 22 of the 26 players called up, which shows the squad’s balance and the trust in the bench.

Sweden Lack Balance

Graham Potter’s team have had two very different results: they beat Tunisia 5-1 in the first round, then lost to the Netherlands by the same score. Neither scoreline fully matched the underlying numbers. Sweden overperformed against Tunisia, scoring five from only 1.34 xG, then conceded five against the Netherlands from 2.60 xGA. Kristoffer Nordfeldt also struggled, saving only three of nine shots on target. Potter publicly backed his goalkeeper, so Nordfeldt will probably keep his starting spot.

It would be unfair to blame only the goalkeeper. Sweden’s wider issue is balance. Under Potter, Sweden have been effective in attack, averaging 2.13 goals per game including friendlies, but they lack defensive compactness. They have not kept a clean sheet in eight matches and have allowed 2.38 goals per game on average. Against an organized Japan team that can punish mistakes, those numbers are a concern.

To add more density in midfield, Benjamin Nygren, who lost 71.4% of his duels across the first two rounds, could be replaced by Lucas Bergvall or Mattias Svanberg. Anthony Elanga came off the bench and scored last time, so he may now get a start. In a 3-1-4-2, he would likely play as the right wing back. To reduce the gaps between the lines, Sweden should set up in a low or mid block and rely on runs from wide players, as well as quick service into Isak and Gyökeres. That pair needs only one touch to score or create. Sweden’s forwards have been involved in four of the team’s six goals at this World Cup.

Japan vs Sweden Predicted Lineup

Japan (3-4-2-1): Suzuki; Tomiyasu, Itakura, H. Ito; Doan, Sano, Tanaka, Nakamura; Kamada, J. Ito; Ueda

Out: Endo, Minamino, Mitoma (all not in the squad), Kubo (injured), Machino (doubtful)

Manager: Hajime Moriyasu

Sweden (3-1-4-2): Nordfeldt; Lindelöf, Lagerbielke, Hien; Carlström; Elanga, Bergvall, Ayari, Gudmundsson; Isak, Gyökeres

Out: Krafth, Holm, Kulusevski (all injured), H. Larsson, Chaletros (both not in the squad), Smith (doubtful)

Manager: Graham Potter

Referee: Ivan Barton (El Salvador)

Barton is a strict referee. Across his last 10 international matches, he has averaged 4.7 yellow cards, 0.6 red cards, and 25.4 fouls. There was also a red card in the only match he has officiated at this World Cup, Turkey vs Paraguay.

Japan vs Sweden Prediction: Japan to Win

Main Prediction: Japan deserve to be favored. They played on even terms with the Netherlands and late in the match even forced them to defend deep near their own goal. Sweden, meanwhile, conceded two early goals against the same Dutch side and could not get back into the match. Both teams have scored six goals at the tournament, but Japan have created the more dangerous chances, averaging 1.36 xG compared with Sweden’s 1.20. Moriyasu’s team are more compact and disciplined, allowing only 0.41 xGA on average, while Sweden are at 1.40. Japan also look strong both in transition and in settled possession.

We do not expect the Group F table to change after this round. A draw is enough for Japan, but they are unlikely to ignore even a small chance to take first place, even if a Netherlands slip does not look likely. Sweden need a win to move above Japan into second. Still, finishing second or third in this group likely means a difficult opponent either way: Brazil or Morocco in one scenario, or teams such as France, Germany, the United States, Mexico, Canada, or Switzerland in another. Motivation should not be the deciding factor. Based on current form, the pick is Japan to win at 1.93 and a correct score lean of 2-1 at 8.00.

Goals Prediction: Sweden have problems, but their attack is still strong. Under Potter, they average 2.13 goals per game, and Tunisia were the only clearly weaker opponent on that list. The Gyökeres-Isak partnership can trouble any defense, even one as organized as Japan’s. Ayari has also scored twice at the tournament, while Elanga, Svanberg, and Bergvall have all contributed with either a goal or an assist. Sweden also need three points to finish second, so they will either try to score first or eventually have to commit more players forward, leaving space behind. A safer option is Both Teams to Score: Yes at 1.69.