Tunisia vs Netherlands 25 June 2026 Prediction

Prediction by John Rowland • Tipsters Editorial Team

The Netherlands are close to reaching the knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup. Still, they have not finished their group-stage job yet. To keep first place, they need to beat Tunisia, preferably by a clear margin. The Netherlands have won their final group match at each of the last three World Cups. Now they need to keep that run going.

The Coaching Change Has Not Helped Tunisia

Tunisia opened the World Cup with a 5-1 loss to Sweden. Under Sabri Lamouchi, the team played boldly, but the approach did not work. Tunisia produced only 0.27 xG in attack and scored mostly through chance, while they conceded five goals from 1.34 xGA because of individual mistakes. The Tunisian federation quickly dismissed Lamouchi and appointed Hervé Renard.

The new manager chose a more defensive approach for the next match, but that did not work either. A low block against Japan led to another heavy defeat, 4-0. Tunisia took only two shots all game and created 0.08 xG, while Japan finished at 2.13. The team again conceded more than expected, and the attack looked even worse under Renard. Tunisia have already been eliminated, and the mood inside the squad is poor. Defender Ali Abdi cried during an interview after the second round and criticized the team’s World Cup preparation:

“We come to the World Cup with players who have never played together. You cannot prepare for a World Cup by playing only a few matches against opponents who have been preparing for it for years,” he said.

Renard did not make major lineup changes after taking over, only a few adjustments. Bronn replaced Hamid in central defense, but that did not add stability, and the change was reversed after halftime. Celtic forward Tounakti also started up front, but struggled badly. Given Tunisia’s poor attacking display against Japan, changes in the front line would make sense. Dynamo Makhachkala forward Mastouri deserves a chance, for example. He had 2 goals and 1 assist in six 2026 World Cup qualifying matches, but has stayed on the bench at this tournament so far.

Aiming to Advance From First Place

The Netherlands had a difficult first-round match against disciplined Japan (2-2). The xG numbers were close too, 0.79 to 0.59. Neither side created much, but individual quality made the difference. Still, a draw against an in-form Japan team is not a poor result. Against Sweden, Ronald Koeman’s team played at a much higher tempo: they won the xG battle 2.60 to 1.01 and took a 5-1 victory. Two things are worth noting: Sweden were a lower-level opponent, and the Netherlands did overperform by scoring five. They also overperformed in the first round.

Koeman has an intelligent midfield led by Frenkie de Jong and a fast, technical attacking group with strong options out wide. That makes the Netherlands flexible: they can control possession with short passing and also move quickly from defense into counterattacks. Their possession game did not fully work against Japan, but Japan are one of the most disciplined teams in the world. Tunisia should be easier to break down. The Netherlands can unsettle Tunisia’s heavy back three with constant movement and rotations in attack, and they also have the wingers to attack slower wide areas through Gakpo, Malen, Summerville, or similar options.

A draw against Tunisia would be enough for the Netherlands to reach the Round of 32 directly. But they also need to protect first place against Japan. The group winner will face the runner-up from Group C, currently Morocco, while second place is likely to lead to a tougher matchup against Brazil. Morocco would be the more favorable knockout opponent. That is why Koeman should start a strong lineup and only rest key players if the match is under control. The usual combinations should remain in defense and midfield, while the main choices are up front. The Malen-Brobbey-Gakpo trio combined for 4 goals and 1 assist against Sweden and should start again, though Memphis Depay or Summerville could also be used.

Tunisia vs Netherlands Predicted Lineup

Tunisia (3-4-2-1): Dahmen; Hamida, Talbi, Rekik; Valery, Slimane, Skhiri, Abdi; Saad, Mejbri; Mastouri

Out: None

Manager: Hervé Renard

Netherlands (4-3-3): Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van Dijk, Van de Ven; Gravenberch, De Jong, Reijnders; Malen, Brobbey, Gakpo

Out: J. Timber (injured)

Manager: Ronald Koeman

Referee: Katia Itzel García (Mexico)

The Mexican referee tends to use a fairly strict approach. Across her last 20 matches in all competitions, she has averaged 4.61 yellow cards and 26.18 fouls. She will become the first female referee from Mexico to officiate a men’s World Cup match, which makes this a major assignment for her.

Tunisia vs Netherlands Prediction: Netherlands Handicap -2.5

Main Prediction: Tunisia have not looked ready for this level. Their two heavy defeats to Sweden and Japan, with a combined score of 1-9, show the scale of the problem. The coaching change after the first round did not help and may have made the structure even worse. The early elimination has also affected the atmosphere inside the team, as Ali Abdi’s interview made clear. There are few reasons to expect a sudden improvement.

Tunisia will try to avoid another heavy loss, but stopping the group favorite is a difficult task. The Netherlands are gaining momentum, they beat Sweden 5-1 in the previous round, and they still need to protect first place. Unfortunately for Tunisia, the tournament situation pushes the Dutch not just toward a win, but toward a convincing one. Our pick is Netherlands handicap (-2.5) at 1.89 and a Netherlands 4-0 correct score lean.

Total Prediction: Tunisia conceded at least four goals against both Sweden and Japan. Their opponents did score more than their xG suggested, but the reason was clear: individual mistakes. Under the pressure the Netherlands can apply, those mistakes are unlikely to disappear. They may increase. The Dutch have the attacking quality to score several goals, with seven already in two rounds and a strong group of forwards. Koeman also has competition up front, so even in-game rotation would bring on motivated, high-level players such as Depay or Summerville. The Netherlands can clear this line on their own. Since every World Cup match involving these two teams so far has produced at least four goals, the pick is Over 3.5 Goals at 2.20.