Turkey vs USA 26 June 2026 Prediction

Prediction by John Rowland • Tipsters Editorial Team

The third round in Group D features a match that will not affect the standings. The USA have already secured first place, while Turkey are out of playoff contention and will play only for pride. The teams have met four times in the 21st century, and each of those matches produced exactly three goals. With nothing to lose, both sides should play for goals.

An Unfair Exit

Turkey have not picked up a single point in the group after losing to Australia (0-2) and Paraguay (0-1), but their performances were not as poor as the table suggests. Vincenzo Montella’s team even set a telling World Cup anti-record, failing to score after 62 shots. In terms of chance quality, Turkey outperformed both of their previous opponents: 1.33 to 1.20 xG against Australia and 2.14 to 0.32 against Paraguay.

Despite the early elimination, Turkey should keep strong attacking potential. Without tournament pressure, Güler and Yıldız may play with more freedom. In the first two rounds, Montella’s team overloaded the half-spaces well, and that could be effective again against an experimental USA defense. Turkey also have the passing quality to beat the American press. Hakan Çalhanoğlu is not the only player capable of progressing the ball: center back Abdülkerim Bardakcı completed all 98 of his passes against Paraguay.

Turkey started their previous matches with Kerem Aktürkoğlu as a false nine. But given their clear finishing problems, we expect a more natural center forward in the final group match. That role will most likely go to 21-year-old Deniz Gül, who came on in the second half in both previous games. With no tournament pressure, rotation is possible in other positions as well. Yunus Akgün, who struggled in the previous match, could be replaced by promising attacking midfielder Can Uzun. A goalkeeper change is also possible, as Uğurcan Çakır did not make much of a difference in the first two rounds.

Heavy Rotation Expected

The USA won Group D very confidently. In the opening match against Paraguay (4-1), Mauricio Pochettino’s team showed their strength and overwhelmed the opponent with high pressing. They did the same against Australia (2-0). Still, the USA have scored much more than they have created at this tournament: 6 goals from 2.46 xG. Their drop-off in the second halves is also worth noting. After halftime, they have scored only once from 0.69 xG.

That issue could matter both against Turkey and in the Round of 32. In the first knockout round, the USA will face one of the third-placed teams from Groups B, E, F, I, or J. The most difficult possible opponent looks like Senegal, the team that won the last Africa Cup of Nations on the field. The other possible opponents, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ecuador, Sweden, and Algeria, should be less difficult. The Round of 16 opponent also may not be elite, with Belgium, Egypt, or Iran among the possible options.

At this World Cup, the USA have mostly faced deep defensive blocks. The Americans have shown they can break down both a compact South American defense and Australia’s more traditional British-style defensive setup. On Friday, though, they will see a very different type of game. Turkey are likely to play more openly. If the USA’s counter-pressing does not work as well with a rotated lineup, Turkey’s quick attack will get plenty of space.

The USA will almost certainly rotate in a match that has no tournament value for them. The first players likely to be rested are those on yellow cards: Folarin Balogun, Tyler Adams, Antonee Robinson, and Chris Richards. All four are key players. Replacing the team’s top scorer at the tournament, their main midfield ball-winner, and two of their most reliable defenders without losing quality will be difficult. Christian Pulisic, however, is expected to return after missing the Paraguay match with an injury. The Milan player could become the center of the USA’s attacking play.

Turkey vs USA Predicted Lineup

Turkey (4-2-3-1): Bayındır; Müldür, Kabak, Bardakcı, Kadıoğlu; Özcan, Çalhanoğlu; Güler, Uzun, Yıldız; Gül

Out: None

Manager: Vincenzo Montella

USA (4-2-3-1): Turner; Freeman, Trusty, McKenzie, Scally; Berhalter, Roldan; Weah, Aaronson, Pulisic; Pepi

Out: None

Manager: Mauricio Pochettino

Referee: Mustapha Ghorbal (Algeria)

Ghorbal has already worked Scotland vs Haiti at this World Cup, showing four yellow cards. That is normal for the Algerian referee. He showed exactly four yellows in 4 of his last 5 international matches, and in only one of those games did he call fewer than 30 fouls.

Turkey vs USA Prediction: Turkey Not to Lose

Main Prediction: This match has no tournament importance for either team, but Turkey should be more motivated to make a strong final impression. For them, facing the World Cup hosts is the last chance to soften the disappointment of an early exit and give their fans something positive.

From a performance standpoint, the teams are not as far apart as the standings suggest. In terms of xG minus xGA, Turkey were even ahead of the USA across the first two rounds, 1.93 to 1.58. Montella’s team also have recent positive experience against the Americans, having beaten them 2-1 in an away friendly last year. This match should also have a semi-friendly feel, so the pick is Turkey not to lose at 1.89 and a correct score lean of 2-1 at 12.00.

Total Prediction: Neither team likes to sit deep, and both prefer to play through attack. With the tournament situation no longer weighing on them, this game has a good chance to go over the goals total. Turkey have deserved a goal at this World Cup, and their last 10 matches have averaged exactly 3 goals. The USA have been even higher over the same stretch, averaging 3.8 goals per game. The value is on Over 2.5 Goals at 1.71.