Paraguay vs Australia 26 June 2026 Prediction

Prediction by John Rowland • Tipsters Editorial Team

Both teams surprisingly beat Turkey, but both also lost clearly to World Cup co-hosts USA, who secured first place in the group. Now Paraguay and Australia will decide the second direct spot in the Round of 32. Paraguay are considered the favorite, but the suspension of key player Miguel Almirón could become a major problem.

Paraguay’s Deep Block Can Reach the Playoffs

Gustavo Alfaro’s team have a good chance to reach the playoffs, but so far the main thing they deserve credit for is resilience. Paraguay lost 4-1 to the USA in the first round, then somehow took three points against Turkey (1-0). The numbers are clear: Paraguay have averaged 0.46 xG in these matches while allowing 1.78 xGA. It is worth noting that they played the entire second half against Turkey with 10 men after Almirón was sent off. It was the first case of a player receiving a red card for covering his mouth under FIFA’s new rule. Paraguay held out under heavy pressure, allowing 2.17 xG, but Turkey wasted most of their chances themselves.

Paraguay need only one point to reach the playoffs, but that would guarantee only third place and a difficult Round of 32 matchup against Portugal, or possibly a strong Colombia side. Australia have no reason to take control of the game, so Paraguay may have to do it themselves. That is not their preferred style. At this tournament, they have averaged only 28% possession. In friendlies, they lost the possession battle against every opponent except a very weak Nicaragua side (4-0). There are doubts about whether they can switch effectively from direct football to a more positional approach, especially in chance creation.

That problem becomes bigger without Almirón, who was important in quick transitions from defense to attack. Julio Enciso’s role should grow even further. The young talent assisted both of Paraguay’s previous goals. Since Matías Galarza, who scored the winner against Turkey, avoided a serious injury, he should start on the left side of midfield, while Diego Gómez is likely to move to the opposite flank, where he played in the first round. Damián Bobadilla should then take the No. 8 role, which he has already played at this World Cup. Isidro Pitta lost all eight of his duels in the last match and completed only 38% of his passes, so Antonio Sanabria, Paraguay’s top scorer in qualifying with four goals, is the more likely partner for Enciso up front.

Australia Are in a Favorable Position

Australia have followed a similar path, but they have looked slightly more interesting in attack and have allowed fewer clear chances. They dealt fairly well with the positional attacks of both Turkey and the USA, allowing 1.36 and 1.08 xGA respectively. Their current second place was helped by strong finishing in the first round, with 2 goals from 1.18 xG. Still, both goals came from quick counters, which is exactly how Australia want to play, so that win can be viewed as a tactical success.

Like Paraguay, Australia sit in a low block and try to move the ball forward quickly. They have averaged 33% possession. Their main task in this match is to get at least a draw and reach the playoffs from second place in the group, which could set up a manageable opponent such as Iran or Egypt. That gives the coaching staff no reason to move away from their usual plan. Paraguay will have to push higher, which should suit Australia’s quick players in transition.

The assistant manager has already suggested changes to the lineup:

“The starting lineup is not fully decided yet. But yes, you should expect some changes compared with the USA game. We need freshness and aggression,” Paul Okon said.

The most obvious option is the return of Nestory Irankunda on the left wing after he surprisingly stayed on the bench following his winning goal against Turkey. Matthew Leckie suffered a hamstring injury against the USA, so Connor Metcalfe, who scored Australia’s second goal against Turkey, is likely to start on the right. Jackson Irvine could add energy in midfield, especially since Aiden O’Neill played the full 90 minutes in both previous rounds. Mohamed Toure will look to punish Paraguay’s defensive mistakes up front. He has not produced a goal contribution at the World Cup yet, but his club form is strong: 5 goals and 2 assists in his last six matches for Norwich. The captain’s armband and starting goalkeeper role will return to Mathew Ryan. Alfaro confirmed that, and Australia will hope his experience, at his fourth World Cup, helps in a decisive match.

Paraguay vs Australia Predicted Lineup

Paraguay (4-4-2): Gil; Cáceres, G. Gómez, Alderete, Alonso; D. Gómez, Bobadilla, Cubas, Galarza; Sanabria, Enciso

Out: Almirón (suspended), Sosa (doubtful)

Manager: Gustavo Alfaro

Australia (5-4-1): Ryan; Italiano, Circati, Souttar, Burgess, Bos; Metcalfe, Irvine, Okon-Engstler, Irankunda; Toure

Out: Leckie (injured)

Manager: Tony Popovic

Referee: Clément Turpin (France)

Turpin is one of the most respected referees in the game. He does not like stopping play for minor contact, but he is ready to punish players harshly when they cross the line. Across his previous 20 international matches, he averaged 2.65 yellow cards and 22.35 fouls, while one team finished with 10 men in seven of those games. He has already worked one match at this World Cup, England vs Croatia, where he did not issue a single card.

Paraguay vs Australia Prediction: Draw

• Main Prediction: The odds on either team to win are unusually high, and there is a clear reason for that: a draw sends both teams into the playoffs. Paraguay can still take second place from Australia, but that would require them to move away from their principles and play on the front foot. Australia defended well against the USA and Turkey, two teams built around possession, and they would have a good chance of catching Paraguay on the counter if the South Americans push too high. To avoid that, Paraguay are also likely to play cautiously and avoid forcing the game. The pick is draw at 2.11 and a 0-0 correct score at 5.00.
• Goals Prediction: If either team scores, the game becomes much more difficult for the other side. The team in front will drop even deeper, while the trailing team does not have many tools to break down a packed defense. That is why the odds on the over have fallen so low. In these circumstances, the stronger option is Both Teams to Score: No at 1.68. This bet has landed in 3 of Australia’s last 4 matches.