Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim 28 October 2026 Prediction

Holstein Kiel recorded their first 2. Bundesliga win on the ninth attempt and will look to build on that result. However, they face a difficult DFB-Pokal Round of 32 matchup against Hoffenheim, who defeated Lyon and Bayer Leverkusen by identical 3-0 scores in their last two games. Andrej Kramarić is also back in the lineup, strengthening the visitors’ attack.

Holstein Kiel: First 2. Bundesliga Win

Holstein Kiel needed nine games to secure their first victory of the 2. Bundesliga season. Their performances had not been as poor as the results suggested. After conceding twice in each of the opening four rounds, Kiel allowed no more than one goal in their next matches before beating Dynamo Dresden 3-0 at home. The defensive numbers are encouraging. Opponents average 1.64 expected goals per game against Kiel but score only 1.1 goals per match.

Kiel have achieved those results despite significant injury problems. Defenders Frederik Rösling, Lasse Rosenboom, and Sebastian Schonlau are all recovering from serious injuries. The coaching staff is also without winger Andu Kelati and forward Steven Skrzybski. The defensive absences have not had a major impact, but the attack has struggled. Phil Harres is the club’s leading scorer in the 2. Bundesliga with six goals and three assists in nine appearances. No other Kiel player has scored at least three goals. The team averages 1.49 xG per game but scores only 1.2 goals.

Hoffenheim: Strong Recent Form

Hoffenheim made a poor start to the season, losing four of their first five Bundesliga games and twice in the Europa League. Their only convincing result during that stretch was a 4-0 win over Erzgebirge in the previous round of the DFB-Pokal. A 2-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach then gave Christian Ilzer’s team some momentum. Hoffenheim followed that result with consecutive 3-0 wins over Lyon and Bayer Leverkusen. The victory over Leverkusen extended their streak to five games with at least two goals scored.

Andrej Kramarić has played a major role in the improvement. Defender Albian Hajdari, midfielder Nathan De Cat, and attacking players Patrick Wimmer and Tim Lemperle remain sidelined. Kramarić has returned, however, and recorded two goals and three assists across the games against Lyon and Leverkusen.

Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim Predicted Lineup

Holstein Kiel (4-4-2): Weiner; Sekine, Madsen, Zec, Parduzi; Kaprálik, Davidsen, Meffert, de Regt; Kvilitaia, Harres

Unavailable: Schonlau, Rösling, Rosenboom, Skrzybski, Mukai (all injured)

Manager: Tim Walter

Hoffenheim (4-4-2): Baumann; Coufal, Kabak, Machida, Rots; Prass, Avdullahu, Conte, Daghim; Asllani, Kramarić

Unavailable: De Cat, Hajdari, Lemperle, Wimmer (all injured)

Manager: Christian Ilzer

Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim Prediction: Hoffenheim Handicap -1.5

Main prediction: Hoffenheim’s 3-0 wins over Lyon and Bayer Leverkusen both came at home, but their road numbers are also strong. Ilzer’s team averages 2.06 xG and 1.8 goals per away game. Kramarić’s return should make the attack even more effective. Hoffenheim have also adjusted to their defensive absences, keeping clean sheets in their last two matches. They allow only 0.99 xG per away game, which is significant against a Kiel side scoring 1.2 goals from 1.49 xG. Kiel concede around 0.5 goals fewer per game than their underlying numbers suggest, but Hoffenheim have enough attacking quality to challenge that trend. The main selection is Hoffenheim -1.5 at 2.12.

Goals prediction: This matchup could produce several goals. The over has cashed in three of Holstein Kiel’s five home games, with two of those matches producing four goals. Kiel scored three times at home in the previous round, while Hoffenheim average 1.8 goals per away game. Given the visitors’ current form and Kramarić’s return, over 3.5 goals at 1.93 is a reasonable secondary selection.