Roma vs Cagliari Calcio 27 October 2026 Prediction

Roma is unbeaten in 16 league games at home. Cagliari has also struggled on recent visits to the Stadio Olimpico: Roma has won nine of the last 10 meetings there, with the other ending in a draw.

Roma Remains Unbeaten

Roma is no longer winning as comfortably as it did early in the season, when it beat Fiorentina and Lecce 4-0. Still, Gian Piero Gasperini’s system is producing results, and Roma remains unbeaten in league play. Its defending was poor at Napoli last round, allowing 2.40 expected goals against (xGA), one of its worst figures this season. Roma nevertheless earned a draw after trailing 2-0 and then 3-2. At the Stadio Olimpico, it has won three of four Serie A games, dropping points only against defending champion Inter in a 2-2 draw.

Roma’s strengths are its intensity, ball progression through the half-spaces, and quick pressing after turnovers. Matías Soulé creates chances with his dribbling and passes between the lines, while Donyell Malen finds space and finishes moves. Injuries are the main concern. Midfielders Manu Koné and Lorenzo Pellegrini remain out, as does starting goalkeeper Mile Svilar. Paulo Dybala, the team’s assists leader, is doubtful after missing the last three competitive games.

Cagliari’s Recent Decline

Cagliari was unexpectedly in the top four after six rounds, though its performances offered little support for that position. Fabio Pisacane’s defensive approach helped the team earn points, as did Elia Caprile’s goalkeeping and opponents’ poor finishing. Results have since declined: Cagliari lost its last two games to teams in the bottom half of Serie A, falling 4-0 to Monza and 2-0 to Bologna.

The attack remains a problem. Cagliari ranks third from the bottom in Serie A in both expected goals, averaging 1.1 xG per game, and goals scored, averaging 0.75. Daniel Maldini scored in four straight league games before facing his former club Monza, but neither he nor the team has scored in the last two rounds.

Roma vs Cagliari Predicted Lineup

Roma (3-4-2-1): Gollini; Ghilardi, Mancini, Balerdi; Lulli, De Roon, Pisilli, Molina; Soulé, Mora; Malen

Unavailable: Koné, Svilar, Pellegrini (injured); Dybala (doubtful)

Manager: Gian Piero Gasperini

Cagliari (4-3-2-1): Caprile; Zé Pedro, Mina, H. Rodríguez, Obert; Deiola, Romano, Adopo; Maldini, Massolin; Mendy

Unavailable: Felici, Idrissi (injured); Winks (doubtful)

Manager: Fabio Pisacane

Roma vs Cagliari Prediction: Roma Handicap -1.5

Main prediction: Roma has drawn its last three meetings with stronger Serie A opponents: Napoli (3-3), Inter (2-2), and Como (0-0). It has won its other five league games, however, and Cagliari presents a more manageable matchup. Cagliari still plays defensively, but it has conceded six goals across its last two games, losing both by at least two. Roma has won its last two competitive home games by the same margin. The pick is Roma -1.5 handicap at 2.00.

Goals prediction: Roma’s defensive problems against stronger opponents may not carry over to this game. It has kept three clean sheets in its last five competitive matches, while Cagliari has failed to score in two straight Serie A games. Cagliari under 0.5 team goals at 1.93 is another option.