Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks 26 October 2026 Prediction

Miami vs Dallas brings together two teams that have had difficult starts to the season. The Heat are winless through three games, while the Mavericks will be without Flagg. Miami will look to Giannis Antetokounmpo for its first win with him on the roster; Dallas may need a strong game from Kyrie Irving.

Miami Is Off to Its Worst Start Under Spoelstra

Antetokounmpo has yet to find consistency with Miami. He struggled in the first two games, then fouled out with two minutes left in a 115-110 loss to Charlotte. The Heat are 0-3, their worst start in Erik Spoelstra’s 19 seasons as manager.

Miami is shooting 42.8% from the field and averaging 40 rebounds, among the league’s lowest marks. Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo have also struggled to produce in the same game. Against Charlotte, Adebayo had 20 points and eight rebounds, while Antetokounmpo finished with a minus-20 plus/minus. Against Detroit, Antetokounmpo scored 36 points, but Adebayo added only four.

Miami Predicted Lineup: Mitchell, Thompson, Wiggins, Antetokounmpo, Adebayo

Unavailable: None listed

Manager: Erik Spoelstra

Dallas Is Dealing With Early Absences

After beating Indiana 121-105, Dallas lost Flagg for a week. Forwards Biberovic and Martin were injured during the preseason. Irving missed the 122-106 home loss to San Antonio, and his availability remains important for this matchup. Forward Naji Marshall has been steady early on, averaging 13.7 points and 5.7 assists.

Dallas is shooting 50.8% from the field, but its 19 turnovers per game are limiting its opportunities. Dusty May’s team is also averaging 40.3 rebounds, close to Miami’s mark.

Dallas Predicted Lineup: Irving, Christie, Washington, Risacher, Gafford

Unavailable: None listed

Manager: Dusty May

The Home Team Has Won Each Meeting Over the Last Two Seasons

Miami won last season’s home meeting 106-102, and Dallas won the rematch 118-108. Adebayo recorded at least 17 points and six rebounds in each game.

Miami vs Dallas Prediction: Miami Handicap -2.5

Main prediction: Miami has struggled, but Dallas has the more significant personnel concerns. Flagg and several reserves are out, while Irving has not been available for every game. Adebayo has spoken about the need to end Miami’s losing streak. Antetokounmpo fouled out against Charlotte, but he has scored at least 35 points in two of three games. With a full game from him, Miami has a good chance to cover. The pick is Miami -2.5.

Total prediction: These teams have scored no more than 231 points in regulation in any of their four meetings over the past two seasons. Miami is averaging 109 points this season and Dallas 112.3. Neither ranks in the top 10 in possessions per game, making a high-scoring matchup less likely. The pick is under 234.5 total points.