Milan vs Venezia 28 August 2026 Prediction

For the second matchday in a row, AC Milan will face a team managed by one of its former players. After Ignazio Abate’s Torino, the Rossoneri now meet Venezia, led by Giovanni Stroppa. He has faced his former club twice as a manager, losing both matches without scoring: 2-0 and 4-0 with Crotone in the 2020/21 season.

Strong Start Under Amorim

Ruben Amorim’s first match was a success, making him the first Milan manager in 10 years to win on his Serie A debut. Aggressive pressing, a high defensive line, and control of possession were evident from the opening minutes against Torino (2-1). The Rossoneri dominated until scoring their second goal in the 67th minute and rarely allowed Torino out of their own half. The visitors only began creating chances late on, when Milan tired because of their high-intensity approach, and converted one of them. The hosts are not yet at peak fitness, which is normal at the start of the season. Otherwise, they looked like one of the leading contenders for the Serie A title.

Milan also performed well despite fielding a lineup that was short of full strength. Adrien Rabiot and Luka Modric are still working toward full match fitness and only came on after halftime. That did not stop Rabiot from finishing with a goal and an assist. Ardon Jashari and Yunus Musah are expected to start in central midfield again against Venezia, while last season’s key players should provide options from the bench in the second half. Rafael Leao has only just returned to full training after an injury, and his future at Milan remains uncertain. Aston Villa and Galatasaray are interested, but Milan already have another option on the left. Young Alphadjo Cissé, who scored the club’s first goal of the season, has shown considerable promise in the left-sided attacking midfield role.

An Overly Attacking Style for a Relegation Candidate

Giovanni Stroppa has previously managed Pescara, Crotone, and Monza in Serie A, but did not remain in charge until the spring in any of those three spells. He could face a similar situation at Venezia after losing the opening match to a direct relegation rival. The 2-0 home defeat to Lecce was open and produced chances at both ends, with Venezia leading 2.72 to 2.03 in expected goals, but failing to convert their opportunities. As with Stroppa’s previous teams, Venezia commit too many players to attack. That approach has worked in Serie B, but it leaves relegation candidates exposed at the top level, especially against Serie A’s strongest clubs.

Venezia spent more on transfers than any other newly promoted Serie A team, but their biggest signing was another forward: Akor Adams for a club-record €16 million. Their choice of Armel Bella-Kotchap, who was relegated with Verona last season, as the leader of the defense is far less convincing. The German center back has yet to live up to that role. He is effective in physical duels inside the penalty area, but quicker opponents regularly run in behind him during transitions. Milan have the personnel to exploit that weakness.

AC Milan vs Venezia Predicted Lineup

AC Milan (3-4-2-1): Maignan; Gila, De Winter, Pavlovic; Chukwueze, Jashari, Musah, Estupiñán; Loftus-Cheek, Cissé; Ramos

Unavailable: P. Terracciano (injury), R. Leao (doubtful), Jimenez, Fofana, Tomori (all left out of the squad)

Manager: Ruben Amorim

Venezia (3-5-2): Stankovic; Schingtienne, Bella-Kotchap, Franjic; Aino, Perez, Busio, Basic, Correia; Yeboah, Adams

Unavailable: Sverko, Adorante (both injured)

Manager: Giovanni Stroppa

AC Milan vs Venezia Prediction: AC Milan Handicap -1.5

Main prediction: Venezia should be a more favorable opponent for the Rossoneri than Torino. Stroppa’s attacking system has worked well in Serie B, but his teams have consistently struggled with it in the top flight. The problems are particularly clear against Italy’s leading clubs. In 19 matches against AC Milan, Inter Milan, Juventus, Napoli, Roma, Lazio, Atalanta, and Fiorentina, the 58-year-old manager has recorded 17 defeats and only two draws.

Amorim’s team controlled most of its opening match through structured possession and effective pressing. That style should work even better against an inferior opponent that still wants to play attacking soccer. The main selection is AC Milan -1.5 at odds of 2.10.

Goals prediction: Milan still lack defensive balance. In Amorim’s system, the wingbacks effectively operate as additional wingers. If Strahinja Pavlovic does not receive enough cover on the left, the Rossoneri can be exposed. Given Venezia’s attacking approach and Milan’s failure to keep a clean sheet under the Portuguese manager, both teams to score at odds of 2.19 is another option.