Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff 5 July 2026 Prediction

Struff produced the biggest upset of Wimbledon’s fifth matchday by beating Medvedev in straight sets. Next, he faces Hurkacz. The Pole and the German know each other well, having met four times before. Their head-to-head is currently tied at 2-2. Who moves ahead after the fifth meeting?

Court speed: 8/10

Hubert Hurkacz

Last summer, Hurkacz played only one grass-court match because of injury. Before this Wimbledon, he struggled in 's-Hertogenbosch and Halle, where he beat Rublev (6-3, 6-2), but then lost unexpectedly to Fucsovics (6-3, 6-7, 6-7) and Altmaier (6-3, 3-6, 5-7). In London, however, the Pole has looked much better. During the first week of Wimbledon, he beat Ruud (6-4, 6-2, 7-6), Ofner (7-6, 6-4, 6-4), and Paul (4-6, 7-6, 7-5, 6-2), largely because of his strong serving.

Because of his height, Hurkacz serves very well, which gives him plenty of cheap points on grass. He also moves forward confidently to finish points at the net. In the first week in London, he held serve consistently, winning 94% of his service games. His return game has also been solid, especially against second serves, where he has won 50% of points and broken in 19% of return games.

Jan-Lennard Struff

Before Wimbledon, few expected Struff to reach the second week in London. In his first grass-court events, he usually lost as soon as he faced stronger opponents. But at this major, he has found form. After a demanding win over Baez (6-1, 7-6, 4-6, 2-6, 7-5), he followed with upsets against Nakashima (4-6, 7-6, 7-6, 6-7, 7-6) and Medvedev (7-6, 7-6, 7-6). The experienced German has impressed the crowd not only with his powerful serve and baseline hitting, but also with his effort level.

Like Hurkacz, Struff has a big serve, but he plays much more aggressively in rallies. On grass, he constantly pressures opponents with heavy, deep shots off both wings. The downside is a higher error count because of that intensity. During this Wimbledon run, the German has not been as stable on serve as the Pole, holding 86% of his service games. His return numbers are limited as well, as he has won only 14% of opponents’ service games.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head is currently tied at 2-2. Their only grass-court meeting was won by Struff, who beat Hurkacz in three sets (3-6, 6-3, 6-3), although that match was in Stuttgart, where the German had home-crowd support.

Court and Expected Match Script

The main difference between Hurkacz and Struff is how they approach rallies. The Pole is more measured and composed, while the German relies on maximum aggression. Which style works better on London grass is not obvious. But Struff is playing with confidence and is unlikely to let Hurkacz reach the quarterfinals without a serious fight. Even if he loses, his serve should be stable enough to keep the margin manageable.

Hubert Hurkacz vs Jan-Lennard Struff Prediction: Struff Handicap +4.5

The odds for Struff +4.5 games are 1.74. We estimate the true probability of this bet landing at 65%, which makes anything above 1.54 playable. If we compare Hurkacz and Struff’s main serving and returning numbers in London, the Pole looks more stable. But Struff’s commitment has already helped him beat strong opponents in Nakashima and Medvedev. Against Medvedev, he also turned around the third set after dropping serve twice. Hurkacz should not expect an easy path to the Wimbledon quarterfinals against this opponent. The pick is Struff +4.5 games at 1.74.