San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks 4 June 2026 Prediction

The Knicks are one of the most high-profile teams in the world. They have been expected back near the top of the playoffs for a long time, with their last Finals appearance coming in 1999, when they lost the title series to Tim Duncan’s Spurs 4:1. This season, New York partly made up for that by beating San Antonio in the decisive NBA Cup game, 124:113. Can the Knickerbockers change the narrative and get a full measure of revenge against the Spurs?

Wembanyama Has Already Surpassed LeBron, Bryant, and Jordan

No one was surprised by the Spurs’ comfortable first-round win over the Trail Blazers, 4:1. After that, the Texas team beat the experienced Timberwolves, who reached the Conference Finals in 2025, 4:2, and then eliminated the defending champion Thunder, 4:3. Mitch Johnson’s team also took control of Game 7 in Oklahoma City and won 111:103. It is impressive that San Antonio has only the 24th-highest payroll in the NBA and the second-youngest Finals roster since 1954. This team should remain highly competitive in the coming years. Right now, its main leader on both ends is Wembanyama, who has reached the NBA Finals in his third season in the league. For context, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Michael Jordan all reached this stage no earlier than their fourth season. Among the other players, Castle deserves attention as the Spurs’ second star, as he has made a major impact in his second year in the league.

Stephon has recorded at least 14 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists in 13 straight games.

San Antonio Predicted Lineup: Fox — Castle, Vassell — Champagnie, Wembanyama

Out: Jones-Garcia (injury)

Manager: Mitch Johnson

A Historic Playoff Run for New York

Many basketball fans may be underrating the Knicks because of their relatively quick series against the Hawks, 4:2, 76ers, 4:0, and Cavaliers, 4:0. The Knickerbockers have won 11 straight games by a combined margin of 262 points, which makes them statistically one of the strongest finalists in history. This is not only about a weak Eastern Conference. The numbers are backed up by the team’s overall level: since January 20, Mike Brown’s team has been better than San Antonio in defensive rating and better than Oklahoma City in offensive rating. New York has the second-highest payroll in the league and the fifth-oldest roster, so this team is built to compete for a championship in the near future. Knicks fans will expect strong production from Brunson, who has justified his status as the team’s top playoff star with 26.9 points and 6.6 assists per game. Still, Anunoby has been the key two-way player, averaging close to 20 points in the postseason.

OG has recorded at least 14 points and 5 rebounds in 10 of his last 12 games.

New York Predicted Lineup: Brunson — Hart, Bridges — Anunoby, Towns

Out: —

Manager: Mike Brown

What to Know

• San Antonio has allowed at least 31 points in the second quarter in 5 of its last 8 games.
• New York has won the second half in 13 of its 14 games since the start of the playoffs.
• The Knicks beat the Spurs in 2 of their 3 regular-season meetings, and both wins came by at least 11 points.

New York Have Much More Experience

The Spurs had not made the playoffs since 2019, so this roster does not have much experience in elimination games. Almost all of their current leaders, except Fox, are in this position for the first time, including Wembanyama, Castle, and Vassell. In addition, 39-year-old Mitch Johnson cannot match the coaching experience of 56-year-old Mike Brown, who reached his first NBA Finals with LeBron back in 2007. In this season’s head-to-head matchups, New York’s manager has the edge over his counterpart from Texas, 2:1. The current Knicks roster also has several proven players: Anunoby won a championship with the Raptors in 2018/19, Bridges played in the Finals with the Suns in 2021, and Brunson has established himself as an elite clutch player.

San Antonio vs New York Prediction: New York +5.5 at 1.75

Main Pick: The Knicks have the best offense in the playoffs, averaging 119.9 points on 51.5% shooting, and they also lead the field in points in the paint at 53.3 per game. Those numbers should decline against Wembanyama. The Thunder scored at an extremely high rate at the rim against the Suns and Lakers, but dropped to 55% in the Western Conference Finals against San Antonio. The visitors also have an issue with Robinson’s broken finger, as he is one of their key offensive rebounding specialists. With him on the floor, New York grabs 39.4% of available offensive rebounds; without him, that number drops to 28.6%. He is one of the reasons Brown’s team leads the playoffs in second-chance points at 17.5 per game. On the other hand, even if Mitchell is not at 100%, there are still questions about the Spurs’ condition after a physically and emotionally demanding series against the defending champions from Oklahoma City. It is also worth noting that San Antonio lost its first home game against both the Timberwolves, 102:104, and the Thunder, 108:123. Brown’s team has been in excellent playoff form, going 12-2, and had enough time to prepare for the Finals. New York should at least keep this close. The pick is New York +5.5 at 1.75.

Total Pick: There were reasons to expect a low-scoring series between the Spurs and the defense-first Thunder, but at least 214 points were scored in 5 of the 7 games. The Knicks have also had totals of 217 or higher in 5 of their 7 road games in this playoff run. Finally, these teams combined for 237 points in 2 of their 3 regular-season meetings while playing at a strong offensive level. Game 1 of the Finals should be more controlled, but it should not be a slow, low-event matchup. The pick is over 216.5 at 1.75.

Long-Odds Pick: In 2 of the 3 head-to-head meetings this season, both teams scored at least 113 points. The Knicks are unlikely to consistently reach 120 or more, but their offense can be one of the main factors in a potential upset. They have little reason to turn this into a purely defensive game against a Spurs team that is already strong on that end. New York should play aggressively, so the value option is both teams to score over 107.5 points at 3.00.