Sweden vs Greece 4 June 2026 Prediction

Sweden lost to Norway in a recent friendly, 3-1. However, half of the team’s starting lineup did not play. Greece are returning after a two-month break. Can the hosts respond after that setback, or will the visitors show their best level after missing out on a World Cup spot?

A Difficult Path to the World Cup

Sweden had a poor qualifying campaign. The team earned only two points in its group and deservedly finished last. The group was not especially strong either, with Sweden facing Switzerland, Kosovo, and Slovenia. Still, thanks to the Nations League, Sweden reached the World Cup. In the decisive and evenly matched game, the team beat Poland 3-2, scoring the winning goal late on.

The recent match against Norway, a 3-1 loss, also deserves attention. Sweden did not field its full starting lineup, and the team conceded three goals in the first 45 minutes. Sweden scored once in the second half, but that was not enough, as the team produced only 0.49 xG.

One of the team’s main stars, Arsenal forward Viktor Gyokeres, was not called up for the friendlies because he is recovering after the Champions League final. He finished as the seventh-highest scorer in the English league with 14 goals. His qualifying campaign was fairly quiet, but in the two playoff matches he scored four goals in total and played a major role in sending Sweden to the World Cup. Still, Sweden have another leader ready to step in: Liverpool forward Alexander Isak. He had a modest season, partly because of injury, but scored for the national team in the recent match against Norway. Before that, he had gone eight matches without a goal for Sweden. With him up front, Sweden should not lose much in attack, as he also competes well for the ball and is strong at finishing crosses.

Another Failed Campaign

Greece have once again failed to qualify for the World Cup. The national team last played at the tournament in 2014 in Brazil. Greece had a disappointing qualifying campaign, earning only seven points from six matches and finishing third. The key stretch came in September, when Greece lost three straight matches: twice to Denmark (3-0 and 3-1) and once to Scotland (3-0). After that, their chances of reaching the upcoming tournament were very limited. 

It is worth noting that two important players have been called up: forwards Christos Tzolis and Vangelis Pavlidis. Both appeared in almost every match of the qualifying campaign. Tzolis had an excellent season with Club Brugge in Belgium, recording 17 goals and 23 assists. Pavlidis also performed well for Benfica in Portugal, finishing as the team’s second-leading scorer with 22 goals. With them, Greece’s attack looks dangerous: Tzolis can carry the ball down the flank and deliver crosses for Pavlidis. That could create problems for Sweden’s already unstable defense.

Sweden vs Greece Predicted Lineup

Sweden (3-5-2): Zetterstrom – Lindelof, Lagerbielke, Ekdal – Svensson, Zeneli, Bergvall, Carlstrom, Johansson – Isak, Elanga

Out: Kulusevski, Holm (both injured), Gyokeres (manager’s decision)

Manager: Graham Potter

Greece (4-2-3-1): Tzolakis – Tsimikas, Koulierakis, Retsos, Vagiannidis – Triadis, Kourbelis – Tzolis, Bakasetas, Masouras – Pavlidis

Out: -

Manager: Ivan Jovanovic

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Sweden vs Greece Prediction: Greece Double Chance at 1.76

• Main prediction: Bookmakers have Sweden as a slight favorite, but we do not fully agree. In the recent 3-1 loss to Norway, Sweden played without part of its first-choice lineup and looked weak. The hosts also have squad issues, as they will be without leading attacking player Viktor Gyokeres. Sweden’s defense has also been unreliable lately. We doubt Graham Potter, without all of his key players available, will take major risks and keep his strongest lineup on the field for the full match. This game is not highly important for Greece either, but the visitors are preparing for the upcoming Nations League and should want to test their strongest team. Based on that, our pick is Greece double chance at 1.76. Bettors looking for a higher-risk option can consider correct score 1-1 at 6.85.
• Goals prediction: Sweden scoring looks likely. The hosts have found the net in five straight matches. However, keeping a clean sheet looks much less likely, as Sweden have conceded in each of their last 10 matches. During that stretch, they conceded in two matches against Kosovo, who are clearly weaker than Greece. Greece have failed to score in their last three games, but this time their attack will be led by Pavlidis and Tzolis, who were among the top scorers in their respective leagues this season. The visitors have enough quality to score. We are backing both teams to score — yes at 1.70.