Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva 4 June 2026 Prediction

About a month ago, Marta Kostyuk beat Mirra Andreeva in the WTA 1000 Madrid final to win the biggest title of her career. Now they meet again, this time in the French Open semifinals. The Ukrainian is considered the favorite, but the Russian will be looking for revenge and a first career Grand Slam final. What should we expect from their third head-to-head meeting?

Surface speed: 4/10

Kostyuk

Marta is having the best season of her career. Surprisingly, she has looked much stronger on clay than on her preferred hard courts. The 23-year-old Ukrainian is currently on an impressive 16-match winning streak on slower surfaces. In 2026, Kostyuk has not lost a clay-court match yet, going 16-0 and winning titles in Rouen (WTA 250) and Madrid (WTA 1000). Her Roland Garros campaign has also gone very well: across five matches, Marta has dropped only two sets. In the round of 16, she knocked out four-time champion Swiatek (7-5, 6-1), then beat her powerful compatriot Svitolina in the quarterfinals (6-3, 2-6, 6-2). 

Kostyuk has admitted that she sees her serve as a weakness. The Ukrainian can have problems on serve at times and does make unnecessary double faults. Still, that has not stopped Marta from winning. The world No. 15 is excellent on return, moves quickly around the court, and can defend difficult shots. In her recent matches against Swiatek and Svitolina, she made 12 breaks in total, which is a very strong number. In her current form, Kostyuk can realistically compete for the title in Paris.

Andreeva

Despite being only 19, Mirra has already established herself among the women’s tennis elite and is ranked eighth in the world. During her young career, the Russian has not been tied to one specific surface, as she has played well both on hard courts (85-33) and on clay (88-20). This season, Andreeva has won two titles: on hard courts in Adelaide (WTA 500) and on clay in Linz (WTA 500). On clay, the Krasnoyarsk native has won 20 of 23 matches, losing only to some of the best players in the world: Rybakina, Gauff, and Kostyuk. In Paris, she has dropped only one set on her way to the semifinals, against Bassols Ribera (3-6, 6-1, 6-1), while beating her other four opponents in straight sets. However, her draw has not been especially difficult, as in 4 of her 5 matches Andreeva was priced as a heavy favorite with odds below 1.15. The exception was the match against Cirstea (6-0, 6-3), where Mirra played very well and even received praise from the Romanian afterward.

“I love Mirra and her team. She is a great girl. A blessing for our sport. Sweet, kind, and funny at the same time. An amazing person. I would really like her to win Roland Garros,” Cirstea said after her match against Andreeva.

Mirra has a high tennis IQ and plenty of variety, which allows her to adapt to different opponents. She can attack well with her backhand and defend reliably in longer rallies. Her weaknesses include an inconsistent forehand, which often misses long, and some mental instability. When things are not going her way on court, Andreeva can react too emotionally to setbacks, which leads to more unforced errors. This tends to happen most often against top-level opponents like Kostyuk.

Head-to-Head

Kostyuk currently leads the head-to-head 2-0. In 2026, Marta first beat Mirra on hard courts in Brisbane (7-6, 6-3), then defeated her again in the Madrid WTA 1000 final on clay (6-3, 7-5).

Surface and Expected Match Scenario

The clay in Paris is slow, which makes endurance, movement, and return game especially important. Kostyuk is at least as strong as Andreeva in all of those areas. In fact, the Ukrainian has been better on return on clay in 2026: Marta has won 58% of her return games, the second-best mark in the world, compared to Mirra’s 42.7%, which ranks 15th. In Madrid, Kostyuk attacked Andreeva’s serve from the start, and that plan worked: she converted all 4 of her break points. It is unlikely that Kostyuk will move away from a successful strategy here. We expect Marta to return aggressively again, target Mirra’s less stable forehand, and force her into deeper defensive positions.

Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Prediction: Kostyuk to Win at 1.76

The odds on Kostyuk to win are 1.76. We estimate the Ukrainian’s true win probability at 61%, which means anything above 1.64 offers betting value. Kostyuk has won 16 straight matches on clay, including wins over Swiatek and Svitolina in Paris. She has also beaten Andreeva in straight sets in both of their head-to-head meetings this season. Marta is more emotionally stable and has extra motivation in matches against players born in Russia, winning seven straight such matches since 2025. Mirra is a strong player, but she can struggle under heavy pressure. The pick is Kostyuk to win at 1.76.