Ararat Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar 22 October 2026 Prediction

  Prediction by   Gevorg Danielyan     October 21, 2026 

Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar are both second in their domestic leagues, but their Europa League results have been less convincing. Ararat-Armenia has lost both matches, while AZ has taken three of a possible six points. At home in Yerevan, Ararat-Armenia will look for its first points against an AZ side that has also been inconsistent in Europe.

Ararat-Armenia's Europa League Struggles

Manuel Tulipa’s team is second in the Armenian league and beat BKMA 1-0 in its most recent match. In the Europa League league phase, however, Ararat-Armenia lost 4-1 to Sparta Prague and 3-1 to Jagiellonia. The match in Poland showed a problem in attack: 15 shots produced just 0.88 xG (expected goals). Ararat-Armenia got shots away but rarely from dangerous positions.

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Defensive mistakes have been costly, too. Ararat-Armenia has conceded seven goals in two games from 4.16 xGA (expected goals against). Opponents have finished above expectation, but the team has also given them chances. Against Sparta Prague, it conceded from corners in the 20th and 22nd minutes and spent most of the match behind. Tulipa acknowledged Sparta’s aerial strength while saying his team needed to defend set pieces better.

Bueno’s availability against AZ remains uncertain. On October 15, Tulipa said the defender needed about two weeks to recover. If Bueno cannot return, Oliveira could again play at right back. That would leave Tulipa with fewer options in midfield, where he values Oliveira’s passing from deep and work without the ball.

Ararat-Armenia tries to build through short passes in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Tulipa acknowledged after both defeats that his team struggled to play through the first line of pressure. If AZ presses high, Carlier’s long passes could offer another route forward. Tulipa has praised his passing range, which could help Ararat-Armenia move the ball away from its own penalty area.

AZ Alkmaar's Inconsistent Form

AZ is second in the Eredivisie. In the Europa League, it followed a 1-0 loss to Sunderland with a 2-1 win over Hapoel Be’er Sheva. AZ had 15 shots to Hapoel’s six in the win and generated 2.53 xG. It can create enough chances to score multiple goals, though it has not always found a way through compact defenses. Its two goals conceded in two European matches also understate the chances it has allowed: opponents have generated 3.72 xG, including 2.63 for Sunderland, when AZ’s goalkeeper was called on repeatedly.

Eight matches in 30 days have forced manager Leroy Echteld to manage his squad’s workload. Kees Smit’s likely absence limits his midfield options, while Hornkamp’s injury leaves Meerdink and Kovács as the available center forwards. Echteld wants his team to defend high and win the ball back quickly. That approach could trouble an Ararat-Armenia side that has struggled against the press. AZ’s wide players could also push the hosts deeper, making it harder for them to find an outlet after regaining possession.

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar Predicted Lineup

Ararat-Armenia (4-2-3-1): Bravim – Oliveira, Wilson, Luis Felipe, Grigoryan – Balanta, Carlier – Serobyan, Tera, Shaghoyan – Lima

Unavailable or doubtful: Ayongo (not in the squad); Bueno, Banjaki (both doubtful)

Manager: Manuel Tulipa

AZ Alkmaar (4-2-3-1): De Busser – Maikuma, Goes, Hoedt, de Wit – Kwakman, Koopmeiners – Oufkir, Byskov, Daal – Kovács

Unavailable or doubtful: Hornkamp, Resink (both injured); Verhulst (not in the squad); Kees Smit (doubtful)

Manager: Leroy Echteld

Referee: Patrik Kolarić (Croatia)

Kolarić has shown 12 yellow cards in four European matches this season. Only in KuPS vs Shamrock Rovers did he issue more than three, showing five. He showed just two in Celtic vs Ferencváros, which ended 1-3. The sample is small, but we expect no more than three yellow cards in Yerevan.

Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction: AZ Alkmaar Handicap -1.5

Main prediction: Both teams took 15 shots in their most recent Europa League matches, but AZ generated 2.53 xG to Ararat-Armenia’s 0.88. They faced different opponents, yet AZ showed it can create chances for multiple goals, while Ararat-Armenia rarely shot from dangerous positions. AZ’s high press could also make it difficult for the hosts to advance the ball, as it has been in both of their league-phase matches. Ararat-Armenia has lost each game by at least two goals. The pick is AZ Alkmaar -1.5 handicap at 2.27.

Goals prediction: Ararat-Armenia has conceded seven goals in two matches but scored in both, losing 4-1 and 3-1. The hosts could add to the total even if AZ controls the game. AZ allowed Sunderland to generate 2.63 xG and Hapoel Be’er Sheva 1.09 xG. Most of the goals are likely to come from AZ against a defense that has made mistakes in open play and on set pieces, but the hosts have a chance to score as well. The pick is over 3.5 total goals at 2.35.