Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague 22 October 2026 Prediction

Olympiacos has won its first two league-phase matches, including a 1-0 victory at Marseille. Sparta also came close to taking six points, but conceded a late equalizer at home to Lillestrom in a 1-1 draw. Both teams enter this match on unbeaten runs.

Olympiacos' Cautious Approach

Olympiacos opened the league phase with two very different wins. Against Jagiellonia (2-1), manager Imanol Alguacil's side fell behind despite outshooting its opponent 21-4 and leading 2.89 to 0.48 in expected goals (xG). It completed the comeback late. At Marseille (1-0), Olympiacos took just nine shots and generated 0.55 xG. A goal before halftime was enough, as the team defended well after the break.

Alguacil's side has generally avoided taking risks. In Super League matches against Levadiakos and Panathinaikos between its Europa League fixtures, Olympiacos scored twice from a combined 0.77 xG, winning both games 1-0. Its attack was more productive against Panetolikos last time out: two goals and 2.50 xG in a 2-0 win. Olympiacos now has five straight victories and has kept a clean sheet in each of its last four matches.

Yaremchuk has been central to the attack. The Ukrainian came off the bench to help secure the win over Jagiellonia and started against Marseille. With El Kaabi unavailable, Alguacil has limited options up front. He left Yaremchuk on the bench against Panetolikos, along with defensive midfielder Hezze, who scored the winner in Marseille. Hezze is expected to start against Sparta.

Sparta's Missed Chances in Recent Matches

Sparta began the league phase with a 4-1 away win over Ararat-Armenia but followed it with a 1-1 home draw against Lillestrom. Brian Priske's side led 15-6 in shots and 8-2 in shots on target, though it generated only 1.04 xG. Sparta scored first, then conceded the equalizer in stoppage time.

Last weekend's 0-0 league draw with Banik was another missed opportunity. Even with several regulars rested, Sparta led 16-12 in shots, 4-3 in shots on target and 1.59 to 0.90 in xG. It remains unbeaten in seven matches across all competitions.

Sparta will be without several players. Captain Karabec has not played since the international break; before his injury, he had two goals and three assists across five consecutive matches. Defenders Mbe Soh and Rynes are also out. Alcocer and Zeleny are available again, although both started the last league match and could be on the bench here.

Olympiacos vs Sparta Predicted Lineup

Olympiacos (4-2-3-1): Ortega; Saliakas, Retsos, Pirola, Onyemaechi; Hezze, Puerta; G. Martins, Chiquinho, J. Silva; Yaremchuk

Unavailable: El Kaabi, Bailey, Fortounis (injured); Mouandilmadji, Yazici, Roca, Scipioni, Clayton, Popovic (not in the squad)

Manager: Imanol Alguacil

Sparta (4-3-3): Surovcik; Suchomel, Sevinsky, Guddal, Vitalios; Sochurek, Mannsverk, Irving; Jurasek, Brunes, Singate

Unavailable: Karabec, Mbe Soh, Rynes (injured)

Manager: Brian Priske

Referee: Espen Eskas (Norway)

Eskas has averaged 3.79 yellow cards and 22 fouls per game across his last 14 European matches. He has shown no red cards and awarded seven penalties in that span.

Olympiacos vs Sparta Prediction: Sparta to Win or Draw at 2.66

Main pick: Olympiacos is on a winning streak, but its attack has scored more than once in only one of its last four matches. It has also won just two of its previous seven European home games and needed a late comeback to beat Jagiellonia. Sparta is unbeaten in seven competitive matches and played well away to Ararat-Armenia. The pick is Sparta to win or draw at 2.66.

Goals pick: Olympiacos has exceeded 1.0 xG in only one of its last four matches, though it has also kept four straight clean sheets. Sparta has scored just once in its last two games and has allowed 2.74 expected goals against (xGA) through two league-phase matches. The pick is under 2.5 goals at 2.10.