Hoffenheim vs Olympique Lyon 22 October 2026 Prediction

Lyon has won both of its Europa League matches and recently moved to the top of Ligue 1. Hoffenheim is favored at home in Sinsheim despite having no points in Europe and conceding five goals. Lyon has already shown it can get results on the road, so this trip to Germany is a chance to build on its strong start.

Hoffenheim: Problems in Defense and Attack

Hoffenheim opened its Europa League campaign with two losses and has yet to find a balance between attack and defense. Against OFI (0-2), Hoffenheim took 21 shots without scoring. Manager Christian Ilzer said his team lacked pace and runs in behind before halftime, then failed to convert its chances. Finishing improved against Beşiktaş (2-3): Hoffenheim scored twice from 1.02 expected goals (xG). But it allowed Beşiktaş to generate 3.37 xG and conceded twice on counterattacks in an 11-minute span. A 2-1 Bundesliga win over Borussia Mönchengladbach was encouraging, though Gladbach had no points going into that match. It is too early to say Hoffenheim has resolved its problems at either end.

For their third game in eight days, Ilzer has fewer options to rotate his squad. Wimmer, De Cat and Hajdari are injured, leaving gaps on the wing, in midfield and in defense. Prass could help: in his first Bundesliga start since April, he scored and assisted. The Austrian may start on the left again with Wimmer unavailable. Set pieces offer Hoffenheim another route to goal. Machida hit the post and scored from a corner against Beşiktaş, while Asllani struck the crossbar with a free kick against Gladbach. Those chances could matter if Hoffenheim struggles to create from open play again.

Lyon Leads at Halftime but Faces Late Pressure

Lyon beat Anderlecht 2-1 and Crystal Palace 3-2 to take six points from its first two Europa League games. The French side scored five goals from 2.98 xG, but also conceded three from 2.93 expected goals against (xGA). Paulo Fonseca’s team led 2-0 at halftime in both matches before allowing its opponents back into contention. After the Palace game, the manager said he wanted his players to keep more possession rather than spend long stretches defending a lead. Lyon faced similar pressure in its 2-1 win over Nice after Nakamura was sent off. It held on and moved to the top of Ligue 1, but closing out games remains a concern.

Lyon won its last two games without Openda, who is sidelined with a hairline fracture in his fibula. Morton is available, although a groin issue means his minutes need to be managed. Fonseca made eight changes against Nice to spread the workload after the Europa League match, and he can now bring back some of the players who started that European game. If Lyon stays in a 4-3-3, the main decision is at center forward: Schulz or Mera could replace Openda. Nuamah and Nakamura can still make runs in behind from the wings, giving Lyon an outlet on quick attacks. Schulz has scored in two straight games.

Hoffenheim vs Lyon Predicted Lineup

Hoffenheim (4-2-3-1): Baumann; Coufal, Hranáč, Machida, Rots; Avdullahu, Prass; Conté, Asllani, Hložek; Lemperle

Out: Wimmer, De Cat, Hajdari (all injured)

Manager: Christian Ilzer

Lyon (4-3-3): Greif; Athekame, Bacher, Niakhaté, Abner; Morton, Tessmann, Tolisso; Nuamah, Schulz, Nakamura

Out: Openda, Tagliafico, Ouedraogo (all injured)

Manager: Paulo Fonseca

Referee: Halil Umut Meler (Turkey)

Meler showed 37 yellow cards in seven European matches last season, an average of 5.3 per game. He issued at least six in four of those matches. In his two European assignments this season, he has shown 14: five in Thun vs Lech and nine in PSV vs Shakhtar. At least four cards look likely in Sinsheim.

Hoffenheim vs Lyon Prediction: Lyon to Win at 3.32

Main pick: Hoffenheim’s problems defending counterattacks give Lyon’s wingers an opportunity to use their speed. Nuamah’s runs could put Lyon through on goal before Hoffenheim gets back into position. Openda’s absence has not stopped Lyon from scoring, with Schulz finding the net in each of the last two games. Fonseca can also recall players rested against Nice, giving him fresher options for the third game in eight days. Lyon has the pace and finishing to punish Hoffenheim’s mistakes. The pick is Lyon to win at 3.32.

Goals pick: Lyon could create better chances against Hoffenheim than it did in its first two Europa League games, when it averaged 1.49 xG. Hoffenheim allowed Beşiktaş 3.37 xG in its most recent European match. If Lyon takes advantage of those defensive weaknesses, it may not need the same finishing efficiency to score twice. Hoffenheim has conceded at least two goals in both Europa League games, while Lyon has scored five in its last two competitive matches without Openda. The pick is Lyon over 1.5 team goals at 2.40.