Lech Poznan vs Sunderland 22 October 2026 Prediction

Lech and Sunderland have had contrasting seasons. Lech have scored 15 goals in their last three Ekstraklasa games, but lost 4-0 to both Crystal Palace and Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League. Sunderland are bottom of the Premier League yet have won both of their European matches. Even so, their status as clear favorites in Poznan is open to question.

Lech: Three Straight Convincing League Wins

Three days after the defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, Lech beat Korona 6-1. Ishak scored twice, and the result was effectively settled before halftime. It was Lech’s third straight Ekstraklasa win by at least three goals, following a 5-1 victory over Radomiak and a 4-1 win over Śląsk. Their finishing has been particularly sharp: the six goals against Korona came from 2.24 expected goals (xG). Europe has been a different test. Bayer Leverkusen generated 5.16 xG against Lech’s 0.49.

Manager Niels Frederiksen is unlikely to change the 4-3-3 formation after Sunday’s win. Wålemark and Palma provide width, Ishak contributes beyond the penalty area, and Murawski, Kozubal and Rodriguez help the team play through pressure. Sayyadmanesh, who has seven goals and two assists in 15 matches, remains out with a thigh injury. Lech also have a concern in defense: Mońka went off early against Bayer Leverkusen and missed the subsequent league game. If he is unavailable, Yegbe is likely to partner Skrzypczak at center back again.

Sunderland: Better Results in Europe

The Europa League has been Sunderland’s one consistent source of results. They beat AZ 1-0 at home, then scored a 93rd-minute winner in a 2-1 victory at Torreense. The late win in Portugal was deserved: Sunderland led 22-3 in shots and 1.82-0.09 in xG. In the Premier League, they followed a 2-0 loss to Brighton with a defeat by the same score at Bournemouth, where Danso was sent off in the 17th minute. Sunderland are last in the table. After the Bournemouth game, defender Mukiele acknowledged that the team had not been good enough.

Manager Régis Le Bris has used his squad depth effectively in Europe. Xhaka, Le Fée, Mukiele and Mandava started on the bench in Leiria, and Sunderland’s attacking pressure increased after they came on. Rotating that heavily in Poznan would carry more risk, especially with limited options up front. Brobbey trained with the squad throughout last week and is close to full fitness, but Le Bris does not want to rush him back from a muscle injury. Isidor is also doubtful, leaving Tuterov as a likely starter up front. Meunier, Ballard and Mundle are unavailable.

Lech vs Sunderland Predicted Lineup

Lech (4-3-3): Lis; Pereira, Skrzypczak, Yegbe, Gurgul; Murawski, Kozubal, Rodriguez; Wålemark, Ishak, Palma

Unavailable or doubtful: Sayyadmanesh, Gholizadeh, Moutinho, Douglas (injured); Mońka (doubtful)

Manager: Niels Frederiksen

Sunderland (4-2-3-1): Roefs; Mukiele, Danso, Alderete, Mandava; Xhaka, Sadiki; Hume, Le Fée, Fofana; Tuterov

Unavailable or doubtful: Meunier, Ballard, Mundle (injured); Brobbey, Isidor (doubtful)

Manager: Régis Le Bris

Referee: Balázs Berke (Hungary)

Berke was among the more lenient referees in Hungary’s top division last season. He averaged 3.9 yellow cards and 29.25 fouls per domestic match. Across 20 league games, he showed no red cards but awarded nine penalties. His European averages are 22.39 fouls and 3.83 yellow cards per match.

Lech vs Sunderland Prediction: Lech or Draw (Double Chance) at 2.24

Main pick: Lech’s two heavy Europa League defeats do not reflect their home league form. They are unbeaten in Poznan in the Ekstraklasa, with five wins, one draw and 17 goals scored. Sunderland arrive after four straight Premier League defeats and face a demanding schedule. With their league position worsening, they may also give domestic results greater priority. Sunderland have the stronger squad, but Lech’s home form makes an away win far from certain. The pick is Lech or draw (double chance) at 2.24.

Goals pick: Lech have scored 17 goals in their last five Ekstraklasa home games and continue to create chances without Sayyadmanesh. Sunderland’s opponents have averaged 2.54 xG across four Premier League away games. Sunderland should pose a scoring threat too: they generated 4.72 xG in their first two Europa League matches, while Lech conceded eight goals against Crystal Palace and Bayer Leverkusen. The pick is both teams to score (Yes) at 1.77.