Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille 22 October 2026 Prediction

Sturm Graz return to the Europa League after a 6-1 win in the Austrian Bundesliga, but they have yet to score in two European games. Marseille also arrive on the back of a big domestic win, beating Angers 5-2, though they have lost both of their Europa League matches. Both teams will look to carry that league form into their meeting in Graz.

Sturm Graz Create Too Few Chances in the Europa League

Sturm beat city rivals GAK 6-1 in their latest league game, but their attack has been far less effective in Europe. They generated just 1.18 expected goals (xG) against Rennes (0-0) and Bournemouth (0-3). After winning the ball, they often gave it straight back or lost possession before finding a good shooting position. At the other end, they conceded 4.82 expected goals against (xGA) across those two games. Five saves from their goalkeeper helped secure the draw with Rennes, but Bournemouth made their advantage count. The GAK result showed what Sturm can do in attack; in the Europa League, they have rarely turned possession into clear chances.

Sturm also lost starting goalkeeper Khudyakov in their last match. He broke his leg and underwent surgery. Helac is likely to replace him, although he faced few shots after coming off the bench. Sturm may press Marseille higher up the field to ease the pressure on their new starter. The visitors prefer to build from the back with short passes, and manager Fabio Ingolitsch’s 3-4-2-1 allows the wingbacks to join the press. Winning the ball high will only help if Sturm can keep it and get a shot away, something they have struggled to do in Europe. If Marseille play through the press, they could find space behind Sturm’s advanced wingbacks.

Marseille’s Attack Improved After European Defeats

Marseille opened their Europa League campaign with losses to Besiktas (1-4) and Olympiacos (0-1). They conceded from corners in both games and created only 1.76 xG in total, scoring once. Even when they matched Olympiacos in possession, they rarely threatened the goal. That changed against Angers: Marseille generated 2.74 xG in a 5-2 win, with five different players scoring. Five goals from those chances also reflect efficient finishing, so one game is not enough to establish a trend. Still, Marseille found more ways into the penalty area than they had in Europe.

Keeping that attack effective in Graz will depend in part on Marseille’s ability to move the ball forward under pressure. Manager Bruno Genesio has more options in midfield now that Nnadi and Kondogbia are available again. Højbjerg’s status is uncertain after a muscle injury kept him out of the last three games. In a 4-2-3-1, the midfielders will need to give the defenders passing options and help move the ball to players such as Paixão. Marseille must also react quickly when they lose possession. Giving Sturm time to counter would make it harder to control the game.

Sturm Graz vs Marseille Predicted Lineups

Sturm Graz (3-4-2-1): Helac – Malic, Quarshie, Koller – Heil, Weinhandl, Gorenc-Stanković, Balbo – Seidl, Matoshi – Diakité

Unavailable: Khudyakov, Kiteishvili, Mamageishvili, Rozga, Soglo, Wyper, L. Grgic, Jatta (all injured); Geyrhofer, Wlodarczyk (both left out of the squad)

Manager: Fabio Ingolitsch

Marseille (4-2-3-1): De Lange – Weah, Egan-Riley, Aguerd, Emerson – Nnadi, Kamissoko – Abdallah, Abdelli, Paixão – Gouiri

Unavailable: Cornelius (injured); Højbjerg (doubtful)

Manager: Bruno Genesio

Referee: Nenad Minaković (Serbia)

Minaković showed 31 yellow cards in seven European matches last season, an average of 4.4 per game. Eleven came in Brøndby vs Strasbourg; he showed no more than four in any of the other six matches. This season, he has issued 11 yellows in three European games: five in a Europa League qualifier and three each in the Champions League and Conference League. No more than four yellow cards looks likely in Graz.

Sturm Graz vs Marseille Prediction: Marseille to Win at 2.03

Main prediction: Winning the ball has not been enough for Sturm. They have struggled to get it to their forwards, generating just 1.18 xG in two Europa League games. Marseille look to regain possession quickly after losing it, which could leave Sturm even less time to build attacks. The visitors have also struggled to create chances in Europe, but their win over Angers showed they can get several players into scoring positions. If they limit Sturm’s chances while maintaining that attacking threat, they should have the edge. The pick is Marseille to win at 2.03.

Goals prediction: Two scoreless Europa League games are a small sample, but Sturm’s underlying numbers are also concerning: five shots on target and 1.18 xG. They have had more opportunities to counterattack in the league. In Europe, they have often failed to move the ball forward after winning it. Unless that changes against a Marseille side that tries to win possession back quickly, Sturm may again struggle to create chances. The pick is both teams to score: no at 2.25.