Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva 6 June 2026 Prediction

Russian players had not appeared in a Grand Slam singles final since 2021, when Pavlyuchenkova reached the title match in Paris before losing to Krejcikova. Now 19-year-old Andreeva will compete for the trophy on the same courts, becoming the youngest Roland Garros finalist in the last 30 years. Can the talented Mirra beat Chwalinska, one of the biggest surprises in women’s tennis in recent years?

Court speed: 4/10

Chwalinska (0 WTA 250+ Titles; Prize Money — $864,030)

Many tennis fans have been reminded of Raducanu, who won the 2021 US Open as a qualifier. That same year, Chwalinska paused her career because of depression. Now 24-year-old Maja is up to No. 20 in the live rankings, even though she began the tournament outside the top 100. Before the start of Roland Garros, she had only one main-draw win at a Grand Slam.

Looking only at main-draw matches, Maja has been extremely effective on return: she has converted 30 of 46 break points (65%). Over this stretch, she has been the best player in the world at creating an edge in opponents’ service games. Since the start of the season, the leading names in this category include Osorio, Ostapenko, Jovic, and Svitolina, who are around the 50% mark.

Maja has strong numbers on clay in 2026 (19-5), which is partly explained by her schedule at lower-profile tournaments (10-5) combined with her ongoing run in Paris (9-0). However, the Polish player has still not played a clay-court match against a top-20 opponent.

Andreeva (5 WTA 250+ Titles; Prize Money — $9,671,731)

Andreeva is No. 6 in the live rankings and will not move higher even if she wins the title. It has been an uneven season for the Russian: she failed to defend last year’s titles in Dubai and Indian Wells, losing in the opening rounds. That difficult experience may have made Mirra stronger, as she has become the first player born in 2005 or later to reach a Major final, including the men’s tour.

From a serving standpoint, Mirra played two close-to-ideal matches against strong top-20 opponents in Cirstea and Kostyuk, landing 73%+ of her first serves and winning 66%+ behind them. She has clearly put a lot of work into her serve, which helps her hold more comfortably. It is also worth remembering that Andreeva is among the top four returners among players with 20+ matches in 2026, winning 43% of return games. The Krasnoyarsk native fully belongs in the elite of women’s tennis.

Andreeva leads the tour in clay-court wins this season (21-3). During this run, she won her only title in Linz, which was played indoors, and under certain conditions the Roland Garros final could also be played under a roof. She has won two of her three title matches at WTA 250+ level.

Tournament Run

• Chwalinska has had some favorable circumstances in the Paris draw. First, she has not faced a top-20 opponent. Second, she has played almost all of her matches against attacking players, including Zheng (6-4, 6-0), Sakkari (1-6, 6-3, 6-2), Kalinskaya (7-6, 6-3), and Shnaider (7-6, 6-4). All of them finished well below their usual level in the winners-to-unforced-errors balance.
• Andreeva has had a more manageable path through the tournament, which explains several one-sided wins. She started playing at full level after an avoidable three-set match against Bassols Ribera in the second round (3-6, 6-1, 6-1). After that, she beat opponents with different styles without dropping a set: Bouzkova (6-4, 6-2), Teichmann (6-3, 6-2), Cirstea (6-0, 6-3), and Kostyuk (6-1, 6-3). It is also worth noting that Mirra has historically played excellent tennis in Paris: she reached the semifinals here in 2024, which was her best Grand Slam result before this year’s run.

Chwalinska vs Andreeva Prediction: Andreeva Handicap (-4.5) at 1.71

Main prediction: Chwalinska does not play the most spectacular tennis and is comfortable using high, looping balls with heavy bounce. That works well against attacking players who like to take the ball early and use the pace coming at them. However, this approach should be less effective against the more versatile Andreeva, who can stay patient, extend rallies, and keep good depth. The Polish player can also surprise opponents with drop shots, but that is unlikely to catch the mobile Russian off guard. Maja’s left-handed advantage is also questionable in this matchup, given that Mirra has one of the best backhands on tour and owns a 19-4 career record against left-handers, including 12-1 on clay. Andreeva should also bring a strong first serve, which will make life harder for Chwalinska on return — the area that has been Maja’s main weapon throughout the tournament. Since the start of the season, Mirra is 20-1 on her preferred clay against opponents outside the top 10, with the only loss coming against Kostyuk. It is also possible that Kalinskaya and especially her friend Shnaider will share useful details after experiencing Maja’s style firsthand. Finally, Andreeva has won nine clay-court matches since the Rome 1000, and in every one of them the margin was at least six games. We are backing Andreeva to win with a games handicap (-4.5) at 1.71. 

Total prediction: Andreeva has shown maturity and composure since the third round, needing no more than 18 games to win each of her last four matches. Conchita Martinez and the entire coaching team are doing an excellent job preparing for each opponent in detail. Mirra is in excellent form and is firmly a top-10 player, operating on a different level from players like Kalinskaya and Shnaider in terms of consistency, decision-making, and variety. Chwalinska, who was recently ranked outside the top 100, may not be ready for that level. We are taking under 20.5 games at 1.72.