Belgium vs Tunisia 6 June 2026 Prediction

In their final friendly before traveling to North America, Belgium will face another team that will play at the upcoming World Cup. The Red Devils have faced Tunisia three times in the 21st century and have not lost any of those meetings, recording two wins and one draw.

A New System Has Strengthened the Defense

The managerial change made last year has had a strong effect, and Belgium approach the World Cup in excellent form. Under Rudi Garcia, they have played 12 matches of varying importance and lost only the first one. Before the match against Tunisia, the Red Devils had a productive trip to Croatia, where they confidently beat one of the medalists from the last two World Cups, 2-0. 

Against Croatia, Garcia tested a 3-4-1-2 setup that is unusual for Belgium, with Jeremy Doku and Charles De Ketelaere starting as the front two, even though both are more used to playing slightly deeper and wider. The experiment clearly worked, so it would not be surprising to see it continue against Tunisia. The new formation also had a positive effect defensively, helping Belgium deal with the absence of leading center back Zeno Debast. Before that, the 2018 World Cup bronze medalists had kept only one clean sheet in their previous five matches, and that came against Liechtenstein. 

Belgium had no major attacking issues before, especially at home. Under the current manager, Belgium have played five home matches and won the xG battle in each of them. Even against teams comparable to Tunisia, such as Ukraine, Wales, and North Macedonia, their average xG was a strong 2.86. Romelu Lukaku, who is quickly gaining form and scored his 90th goal for the national team against Croatia, should get playing time on Saturday and will have a good chance to add to his scoring record.

Tunisia Struggle to Score Even With a Man Advantage

Tunisia are in the top 50 of the FIFA rankings, sitting 44th, but even at the continental level, the Carthage Eagles have not been especially successful. At the most recent Africa Cup of Nations, they were eliminated in the round of 16 and won only one of their four matches in regulation time. Frequent coaching changes have also made steady progress and team chemistry difficult. Sabri Lamouchi is the sixth manager to work with the national team since 2022. 

It is unlikely that the North African side will make a major step forward under the current manager. Under the 54-year-old Frenchman, the visitors have beaten only modest Haiti, and even that win was difficult (1-0). Their inability to compete with European opponents was clear in their most recent friendly. Austria beat Lamouchi’s team despite playing with 10 men from the 37th minute (0-1). It is also worth noting that Tunisia have lost 10 of their last 15 matches against UEFA opponents.

Tunisia may be the only major African team with very few standout individual players, with only six squad members representing top leagues. It is no surprise that their main weapon is a compact defensive block. High scoring from the Eagles should not be expected, especially if their only reliable creator, Hannibal Mejbri, is unavailable after picking up an injury against Austria. Under Lamouchi, Tunisia are averaging only 0.33 goals per match.

Belgium vs Tunisia Predicted Lineup

Belgium (3-4-1-2): Courtois – Onana, Ngoy, Theate – Saelemaekers, Raskin, Tielemans, De Cuyper – De Bruyne – De Ketelaere, Doku

Out: Faes, Mangala, M. Keita, Bakayoko, Openda (all left out of the squad), Debast (injury)

Manager: Rudi Garcia

Tunisia (4-2-3-1): Chamakha – Valery, Talbi, Arous, Abdi – Skhiri, Khedira – Ayari, Ben Slimane, Tounakti – Chaoua

Out: Mejbri (doubtful)

Manager: Sabri Lamouchi 

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Belgium vs Tunisia Prediction: Belgium -1.5 Handicap at 1.89

• Main prediction: Against stronger opponents, Tunisia usually defend in a deep low block, but in this matchup that approach may not be enough. Rudi Garcia has creative players who can break down compact defenses with unusual passing, including De Bruyne, Tielemans, and De Ketelaere, as well as wide dribblers such as Doku and Saelemaekers. When Romelu Lukaku enters the game, even if only for one half, he will add a major physical presence against Tunisia’s strong defenders. Considering the large gap in quality and Belgium’s excellent home record under the current manager, with no losses and only 20% draws, we are backing Belgium -1.5 handicap at 1.89. A higher-risk option is correct score 2-0 at 5.49.
• Goals prediction: Tunisia showed very little in attack even against an opponent that played with 10 men for most of the match. Breaking down Belgium’s defense, which looked solid against Croatia, will not be any easier, especially if their main playmaker, Hannibal Mejbri, does not play. In three matches under Sabri Lamouchi, the visitors have scored only one goal, so as an additional betting option, it is worth considering both teams to score — no at 1.62.