Croatia vs Slovenia 7 June 2026 Prediction

A Balkan derby is always more than just a soccer match. Croatia and Slovenia meet in Varazdin in a tense atmosphere shaped not only by the history between two former Yugoslav republics, but also by Croatia’s current problems. For Zlatko Dalic, this is the final chance to steady the team before traveling to the World Cup after two straight defeats.

Nerves Are High

Croatia enter their final home match before the 2026 World Cup in a tense state. The reason is two poor results: defeats to Brazil (1-3) and Belgium (0-2). Formally, it is only a two-game losing streak, but it is a worrying sign for a team that starts its World Cup campaign in a week in a group with England, Panama, and Ghana.

Manager Zlatko Dalic has openly expressed concern about the team’s issues in interviews. Against Belgium, he tested a 3-4-2-1 formation, but against Slovenia he plans to use a more attacking system with two forwards. That suggests he is still searching for the best setup before the World Cup. Dalic still has a core of players from top clubs, including Modric, Kovacic, Gvardiol, and Kramaric. However, individual quality has not yet translated into strong team play — Croatia scored only once across the last two matches. Still, Croatia created chances in those games: their expected goals numbers were 1.2 and 1.5 xG. The main issue for Dalic’s team is poor finishing.

One Setback After Another

Slovenia did not qualify for the 2026 World Cup and are now in rebuild mode. New manager Bostjan Cesar, appointed in January, is only at the start of his work. Apart from the win over Montenegro (3-2), there has been little to praise: a draw with Cyprus (1-1) and a defeat to Hungary (0-1). There are no immediate tournament objectives ahead, so Slovenia can experiment with the squad. At the same time, Cesar has already had a dispute with Manchester United over his main scorer, Benjamin Sesko. The manager was unhappy that the forward regularly plays for his club but tends to have injury issues before national team matches. Zhan Vipotnik, who plays for Swansea in the English Championship, is expected to start up front. That clearly weakens Slovenia’s attack.

It is worth noting that despite the push toward a younger squad, goalkeeper Jan Oblak, who has 83 caps for Slovenia, remains the team captain. Cesar said he hopes to rely on the goalkeeper’s experience in the next cycle. Oblak did not play much this season, so he is expected to start against Croatia.

Croatia vs Slovenia Predicted Lineup

Croatia (5-2-1-2): Livakovic — Stanisic, Sutalo, Vuskovic, Gvardiol, Perisic — Modric, Kovacic — Sucic — Kramaric, Budimir

Will not play: –

Manager: Zlatko Dalic

Slovenia (4-2-3-1): Oblak – Ratnik, Bijol, Drkusic, Urbancic – Karnicnik, Gnezda – Begic, Svetlin, Matko – Vipotnik

Will not play: Sesko (injury)

Manager: Bostjan Cesar

Referee: Bence Csonka (Hungary)

The referee worked in the Hungarian league during the 2025/26 season and also officiated European competition matches. Csonka is a fairly strict referee. He calls an average of 25.35 fouls per match. He also shows cards frequently, with an average of 4.35 yellow cards per game.

Croatia vs Slovenia Prediction: Croatia Handicap (-1.5) at 1.87

• Main prediction: Croatia have struggled recently, but they still hold a clear advantage in squad quality and depth. Their leaders will be motivated to respond in front of the home fans before the 2026 World Cup. This is also a meaningful match between two former Yugoslav nations. Slovenia are in transition and will be without their main attacking threat, Sesko. In three of Croatia’s last five wins, they won by at least two goals, so our pick is Croatia handicap (-1.5) at 1.87. A higher-risk option is correct score 2-0.
• Total prediction: Slovenia are likely to defend deep, but Oblak missed most of the season and may lack match sharpness. Without Sesko, the visitors also have limited attacking options. Croatia’s manager plans to test a more attacking setup, but he is unlikely to demand maximum intensity. Two goals should be enough for the hosts to win. The under has landed in six of Slovenia’s last seven matches, so we choose total under (2.5) at 1.82.