Greece vs Italy 7 June 2026 Prediction

Italy failed to qualify for the World Cup, but it has still not lost in regulation time in 2026 (the defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina in the playoff final came on penalties). Greece has been an even more favorable opponent for the Squadra Azzurra: Italy has not lost to Greece in more than 45 years, a run that now covers seven head-to-head meetings.

Greece Is Moving Away From Tradition

Serbian manager Ivan Jovanovic continues to lead Greece despite the team’s failed World Cup qualifying campaign. Recent performances suggest that the federation’s decision to keep him in charge was reasonable. In matches against Scotland (3-2), Belarus (0-0), Paraguay (0-1), and Hungary (0-0), Greece lost only once, while in June’s friendly against World Cup qualifier Sweden, it showed resilience by avoiding defeat with a goal in the final seconds (2-2).

Since the Otto Rehhagel era and the historic Euro 2004 title, Greece has usually been associated with defense. The current team, however, has its strongest pieces in attack. Christos Tzolis, Vangelis Pavlidis, and Anastasios Douvikas all play important roles not only for the national team, but also at club level. It is no surprise that Greece’s average goal output under Jovanovic is a solid 1.79 per match. 

The defensive line is less convincing. Konstantinos Mavropanos and Konstantinos Koulierakis are well-regarded defenders with solid transfer-market value. However, both were relegated from top divisions with West Ham and Wolfsburg, respectively, at the end of the club season. That raises questions about their current form. 

Italy Is Taking a Look at Its Young Players

After missing the World Cup for the third time in a row, Italy parted ways with Gennaro Gattuso, but has not yet appointed a new manager. Silvio Baldini’s main job is with the U21 team, and he has been tasked with testing the nearest reserve options in June’s friendlies. A heavily changed squad looked decent against Luxembourg (1-0), but it is hard to expect major results against a stronger opponent.

In the current squad, only Nicolo Pisilli, Francesco Pio Esposito, and Gianluigi Donnarumma clearly match the level and ambitions of the Squadra Azzurra. That short list could also have included 21-year-old Marco Palestra, who may soon move to Inter. However, the promising wingback picked up an injury, creating an additional problem on the right side of Italy’s defense. That role is now likely to be covered by Constantino Favasuli, who plays in Serie B and is more used to operating on the opposite flank.

Greece vs Italy Predicted Lineup

Greece (3-4-1-2): Mandas – Retsos, Mavropanos, Koulierakis – Rota, Zafeiris, Kourbelis, Tsimikas – Tzolis – Pavlidis, Douvikas

Will Not Play: Giannoulis, Karetsas, Bakasetas (all injured)

Manager: Ivan Jovanovic 

Italy (4-3-3): Donnarumma – Favasuli, Comuzzo, Ahanor, Bartesaghi – Ndour, Lipani, Pisilli – Cherubini, Esposito, Koleosho

Will Not Play: Bastoni, Dimarco, Barella, Tonali, Mancini, Locatelli, Kean (all out of the squad), Palestra (injury)

Manager: Interim manager Silvio Baldini

Greece vs Italy Prediction: Greece to Win at 2.02

• Main Pick: For Italy’s young reserve players, a trip to Crete and a match in front of Greek fans who can create a difficult atmosphere for any visiting side is a serious psychological test. They are not used to playing under that kind of away pressure and may look tense. The overall level of the squad is also a concern. Many of these Squadra Azzurra players do not look ready for the senior national team and may not receive many more call-ups. Greece, meanwhile, is traditionally strong at home, and the numbers support that. In four of their last six home matches across different competitions, Jovanovic’s team won, including a victory over World Cup qualifier Scotland. Here, we also prefer Greece to win at 2.02. A higher-risk option is the correct score of 2-1 at 8.50.
• Goals Pick: Neither team can be fully confident in its defense. Greece has just conceded twice against Sweden, while Italy lacks experience, individual quality, and chemistry in this squad. At home under the current manager, Greece averages 2.1 goals scored per match, but also concedes 1.2 goals on average. That makes both teams to score — yes at 1.77 worth considering.