Mainz vs Werder Bremen 24 October 2026 Prediction

Mainz have made a strong start to the Bundesliga season, taking 10 points from six games to sit fifth. All three of their wins have come away from home, though, so playing at home may not give them much of an advantage. Werder Bremen are eighth, just one point behind Mainz.

Strong Attack, Inconsistent Defense

Mainz have earned more than 10 points from their first six Bundesliga games only twice before. Last week’s 1-0 win over Schalke moved them into the top five. That is a marked improvement for a team that collected just 12 points in the entire first half of last season. Urs Fischer’s side deserved the win in Gelsenkirchen: they led 10-9 in shots, 6-3 in shots on target and 1.94-0.43 in expected goals (xG).

Mainz kept their third clean sheet of the season against Schalke, but their defense has been inconsistent. They conceded at least three goals in each of their other three games and have allowed 10 goals overall. Their attack has been more reliable, scoring 14 Bundesliga goals. Mainz’s 14.04 xG ranks behind only Bayer Leverkusen (14.40) and Bayern Munich (21.15). Striker Phillip Tietz has scored five league goals and another four in the cup.

Starting goalkeeper Robin Zentner remains out injured. His replacement, Andreas Schwolow, has kept two clean sheets but conceded seven goals across his other two appearances. Defender Dominik Kohr is also unavailable, leaving Mainz with fewer options at the back.

Werder’s Defensive Issues and Comebacks

Werder Bremen drew 2-2 at home against Paderborn last week. They trailed by two goals at halftime before Niclas Füllkrug scored twice to earn a point. The draw followed a 3-2 win over Augsburg and a 2-2 draw away to Borussia Dortmund. Werder now travel to Mainz unbeaten in five Bundesliga games.

Werder became the first Bundesliga team to come back from two goals down and avoid defeat in three consecutive matches. Daniel Thioune’s side have shown they can recover from poor starts, but they have conceded twice in each of their last three league games. Their run of 13 matches without a clean sheet is the second-longest active streak in the division. Werder are also winless in six Bundesliga away games, although they avoided defeat in the last two.

Werder’s injury list affects several areas of the squad. Midfielder Jens Stage is out, while the absences of Justin Njinmah and Keke Topp limit their attacking options off the bench. Felix Agu’s injury leaves them short of cover on the defensive flank.

Mainz vs Werder Bremen Predicted Lineup

Mainz (3-5-2): Schwolow – da Costa, Posch, Potulski – Caci, Amiri, Sano, Lee, Mwene – Tietz, Becker

Out: Kohr, Ruoppi, Silas, Zentner (all injured)

Manager: Urs Fischer

Werder Bremen (3-4-3): Hein – Pieper, Friedl, Deman – Arthur, Reis, Reger, Grüll – Dinkçi, Füllkrug, Chuki

Out: Agu, Stark, Alvero, Moussa, Ndiaye, Njinmah, Stage, Topp (all injured)

Manager: Daniel Thioune

Referee: Florian Badstübner

Badstübner has averaged 2.4 yellow cards and 21.55 fouls per game across his last 20 Bundesliga matches. In that span, he has sent off one player and awarded two penalties.

Mainz vs Werder Bremen Prediction: Werder Bremen or Draw at 2.13

Main prediction: Mainz’s strong start has been driven by their away results. They have yet to win at home, drawing 0-0 with Paderborn and losing to Eintracht Frankfurt (1-3) and Bayer Leverkusen (3-4). Werder have struggled on the road too, but they took points from their last two away games: a 1-1 draw with Cologne and a 2-2 draw with Borussia Dortmund. They have also won twice and drawn twice in their last four visits to Mainz. The pick is Werder Bremen or draw at 2.13.

Goals prediction: Both teams have scored regularly and conceded often. Mainz have 14 Bundesliga goals and rank behind only Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen in xG, but they have allowed 10 goals, seven of them at home. Werder have conceded 12 goals in six games while scoring 12 themselves. They have scored at least twice in each of their last three league matches, and Füllkrug has six Bundesliga goals, with at least one in five straight games. The pick is over 3.5 goals at 2.35.