Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur 24 October 2026 Prediction

Chelsea have won their last six Premier League meetings with Tottenham. At Stamford Bridge, they have lost only one of their 41 home meetings with Spurs across all competitions since 1990. Roberto De Zerbi’s team will try to improve that record on Saturday.

Chelsea Return to Form

After a 3-0 loss to Brentford, Xabi Alonso’s team beat Bournemouth 5-1 and won 2-0 at Everton to move back into the top four. Chelsea scored seven goals from just 2.64 expected goals (xG) across those two games. The Bournemouth scoreline flattered them, but the Everton win was more convincing: Chelsea took 18 shots, put seven on target and allowed just 0.43 xG.

Alonso has settled on a midfield and attacking setup. Caicedo and Henderson provide cover in the middle, Palmer has freedom to move, and Neto and Rogers switch positions around Joao Pedro. Goalkeeper Martinez is out after surgery on a broken jaw, so Penders is set to start. James is unavailable following knee surgery, while Gittens will miss several more weeks. Emegha is gradually returning to training. Chavarria’s and Gusto’s availability should become clearer after Friday’s press conference.

Tottenham’s First Win Leaves Questions

Tottenham picked up their first league win on their seventh attempt, beating Coventry 3-1. All three Spurs goals came from outside the box, something they had done only twice before in Premier League history. They generated just 0.86 xG. A week earlier at Old Trafford, Tottenham had the better xG total, 1.56 to 0.77, but drew. De Zerbi’s approach is becoming clearer, though six goals in seven league games remain a concern.

Maddison made his first Premier League start since spring 2025 and scored, while Kulusevski returned after 526 days out. Bentancur is still suspended, Bergvall has a knee injury, and Savinho will miss several weeks. Simons, Odobert and Mudryk also remain unavailable. Tottenham will likely build their midfield around Tonali and Gray again. Chelsea will look to disrupt passes into that area and limit Spurs’ ability to build attacks.

Chelsea vs Tottenham Predicted Lineup

Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Penders; Acheampong, Lacroix, Colwill, Hato; Caicedo, Henderson; Neto, Palmer, Rogers; Joao Pedro

Unavailable: Martinez, James, Gittens (injured); Emegha, Chavarria, Gusto (doubtful)

Manager: Xabi Alonso

Tottenham (4-2-3-1): Kinsky; van Hecke, Adarabioyo, van de Ven, Robertson; Gray, Tonali; Kudus, Maddison, Marmoush; Solanke

Unavailable: Bentancur (suspended); Bergvall, Savinho, Simons, Odobert, Mudryk (injured); Porro, Udogie (doubtful)

Manager: Roberto De Zerbi

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Last Premier League season, Kavanagh ranked among the six strictest referees, averaging 4.13 yellow cards and 22.3 fouls per match. He issued four red cards and awarded seven penalties in 30 games. This season, those averages have risen to 4.8 yellow cards and 26.6 fouls.

Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction: Chelsea Handicap -1.5

Main prediction: Tottenham have taken two points from three Premier League away games: a 3-0 loss at Brentford, a 0-0 draw at Nottingham Forest and a 1-1 draw at Manchester United. They have scored once, while averaging 1.06 xG created and 1.85 xG allowed on the road. Chelsea have scored 11 goals in three league games at Stamford Bridge. They also have two extra days of rest, having played last Saturday while Tottenham played on Monday night. Chelsea to win at 1.76 is the safer pick, but the main selection is Chelsea -1.5 at 2.66.

Goals prediction: Chelsea’s three home league games have ended 4-3 against Brighton, 2-2 against Hull and 5-1 against Bournemouth. At least four goals were scored in each. Their league matches have produced 30 goals through seven rounds, more than any other team’s, and the Everton game is their only league clean sheet. Three of Tottenham’s last four games in all competitions have also featured at least four goals. The additional pick is over 3.5 goals at 2.45.