Flamengo vs Estudiantes de La Plata 23 October 2026 Prediction

  Prediction by   Gevorg Danielyan     October 21, 2026 

Flamengo vs Estudiantes meet in the second leg of their Copa Libertadores semifinal after a scoreless first leg. The match will be played at the Maracanã, where Flamengo will look to use home advantage to reach the final. Estudiantes have already shown they can limit Flamengo’s attack, so the hosts may have to work for their chances.

Flamengo’s Form and Home Advantage

Flamengo enter the semifinal in good form. They beat Bahia 3-0 away on October 19, held 63% possession and created several scoring chances. The win extended their unbeaten league run to eight matches. Flamengo also took 16 of a possible 18 points in the Copa Libertadores group stage. At home, they should see more of the ball and look to attack more often.

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Flamengo Absences and Jorginho’s Return

Flamengo have several players unavailable. Attacking midfielder Giorgian de Arrascaeta is recovering from a fractured wrist and, according to recent reports, is unlikely to play in the second leg. Without him, Flamengo may find it harder to create space against a compact defense. Defenders Danilo and Ayrton Lucas, along with defensive midfielder Evertton Araújo, are also unavailable. Jorginho returns from suspension and should help Flamengo control possession and build attacks.

Estudiantes Can Limit Flamengo’s Chances

Estudiantes held Flamengo to a 0-0 draw in the first leg without allowing a shot on target. They defended compactly, contested possession and limited space between the lines. Their league results before the return leg were less convincing: they lost 2-1 to San Lorenzo on October 18 after a 2-2 draw with Central Córdoba. Both opponents, like Estudiantes, sit in the bottom half of the standings. Still, the first leg showed that Estudiantes can make chances difficult to create for Flamengo.

Tactical Outlook

Flamengo will need to attack more, using the wings and combinations around the penalty area. Committing too many players forward, however, could leave room for Estudiantes to counterattack. The visitors will want to keep the game scoreless for as long as possible. If Flamengo score first, Estudiantes will have to take more risks, which could create chances for a second goal. If neither side finds space, another low-scoring match is possible.

Flamengo vs Estudiantes Prediction: Flamengo Handicap -1

Main pick: Flamengo have home advantage, strong Copa Libertadores results and solid recent form. Their 3-0 win over Bahia showed their attacking threat, while Jorginho’s return should help them control the game. De Arrascaeta’s likely absence could make it harder to break down Estudiantes, who did not allow a shot on target in the first leg. Even so, Flamengo have a chance to win by multiple goals. The pick is Flamengo -1 handicap at 1.65. We estimate a 70% chance of this bet winning, making odds above 1.43 worth considering.