Deportivo Alaves vs Malaga CF 23 October 2026 Prediction

Alaves is looking to end a five-game winless streak against Malaga, the only team in the league without a win. Alaves has remained competitive even in defeat, while Malaga has struggled on the road.

Alaves's Results Have Declined After a Strong Start

Quique Sánchez Flores's team took 10 points from its first four games, but its results have since slipped. After beating Osasuna 5-2 in early September, Alaves earned just one point from its next five matches. The drop in scoring has been sharp: Alaves scored 10 goals in its first four league games and only three in the following five. It has conceded 10 goals, just two of them before halftime. In its most recent match, a 2-1 loss to Celta Vigo, Alaves conceded twice after the break despite allowing chances worth only 0.97 expected goals (xG).

After the match, Sánchez Flores said his team deserved more but paid for defensive mistakes. He also praised Hugo Novoa, who scored Alaves's only goal. Novoa made the most of his opportunity after a long stretch without playing time. The manager indicated he could use him again, making Novoa an option on the wing against Malaga.

Malaga Is Struggling in the Top Division

Malaga's return to the top division has been difficult. Juan Francisco Funes's team has no wins through nine games, with four draws and five losses. It has conceded 18 goals, an average of two per match. Malaga lost 5-2 at home to Real Sociedad last time out. Its two goals were a rare improvement for a side that had scored only four in its previous eight league games.

Malaga has taken one point from four away games, scoring once and conceding eight times. It failed to score in three of those four matches. Diego Murillo, Aarón Ochoa and Julen Lobete are injured, and Joaquín Muñoz joined them after the previous game. Juan Cruz is questionable as he recovers from a recurrence of a muscle injury and is still training individually. Jens Cajuste has returned and was in the squad against Real Sociedad.

Alaves vs Malaga Predicted Lineup

Alaves (5-3-2): Sivera; A. Pérez, Tenaglia, Koski, Valentini, Rebbach; Ibáñez, Blanco, Suárez; Mariano, Boyé

Unavailable: M. Rodríguez (injury), Garcés (suspension)

Manager: Quique Sánchez Flores

Malaga (4-4-2): Herrero; Rafita, Calero, Recio, Aznou; Larrubia, Dotor, I. Merino, P. Martínez; Chupe, Niño

Unavailable: Lobete, Ochoa, Murillo, Muñoz (injuries); Cruz (questionable)

Manager: Juan Funes

Alaves vs Malaga Prediction: Alaves to Win at 1.79

Main prediction: Despite its recent results, Alaves has played well at home. It beat Villarreal 1-0 and Osasuna 5-2. Its losses to Valencia (1-0) and Atletico Madrid (2-1) were both decided by goals conceded in the final 15 minutes. Alaves also had the higher xG against Valencia, 1.04 to 0.79, and created chances worth 1.30 xG against Atletico. Malaga's away record is much weaker. Its losses to Real Madrid (4-0) and Atletico (2-0) came against stronger opponents, but it also struggled against Celta Vigo and Getafe. Malaga was outperformed 1.90 to 0.43 on xG in a 1-1 draw with Celta and created no clear-cut chances in a 1-0 loss to Getafe. Given Alaves's home performances and Malaga's away form, the pick is Alaves to win at 1.79.

Goals prediction: Malaga has scored just once in four away games and has not exceeded 0.71 xG in any of them. Its problem is creating chances, not just finishing them. Alaves, meanwhile, has conceded only two of its 10 goals in the first half. If it avoids the defensive mistakes that have hurt it after halftime, Malaga may find opportunities limited. The pick is Malaga under 0.5 team goals at 2.18.