Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets 23 October 2026 Prediction

Oklahoma City opened the regular season with a 116-104 road win over San Antonio, avenging its loss in last spring’s Western Conference finals. Mark Daigneault’s team now hosts Denver in the Thunder’s home opener and the Nuggets’ first game of the season. Can Denver limit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?

Oklahoma City Opens With a Win Over San Antonio

Four losses in five preseason games, along with the summer departures of Dort, Joe and Wiggins, raised questions about the Thunder. But Oklahoma City beat the Spurs 116-104 on the road in its first regular-season game. A 22-3 run in the second quarter pushed the Thunder’s lead to 26 points, and they held off San Antonio’s attempts to rally after halftime.

Gilgeous-Alexander, the MVP in each of the past two seasons, scored 32 points. The frontcourt trio of the returning Holmgren, Hartenstein and newcomer Mara held Wembanyama to 1-for-13 shooting. Oklahoma City also went 10-for-15 from three in the first half. Jared McCain made six of his seven attempts from beyond the arc.

Oklahoma City Thunder Predicted Lineup: Gilgeous-Alexander, Wallace, Jalen Williams, Holmgren, Hartenstein

Out: Oue (injury)

Manager: Mark Daigneault

Denver Has Limited Shooting Depth

David Adelman’s team won three of its five preseason games. After losing to Utah 109-97, the Nuggets beat the Jazz 117-106 and Chicago 133-128. They then lost to the Clippers 122-110 before defeating the Lakers 121-106. Denver’s starters remain effective, but Oklahoma City has had success against the Nuggets’ style of play.

“Defensively, it’s critical for us to have a player who can switch on the ball and then help on the boards. On offense, we have to account for how they play. They put so much pressure on our two leaders that we can’t beat them without making threes,” David Adelman said ahead of the Oklahoma City game.

Denver is short on shooters off the bench. Watson left in the summer, while Strawther, who played well last season, injured his knee against the Clippers and is expected to miss six weeks. Spencer Jones also missed the entire preseason with a hip injury. That leaves the Nuggets relying heavily on 37-year-old DeRozan among their reserves.

Denver Nuggets Predicted Lineup: Murray, Brown, Johnson, Gordon, Jokic

Out: Strawther (injury)

Manager: David Adelman

Oklahoma City Won Three of Four Meetings Last Season

The teams met four times in the 2025-26 regular season. Oklahoma City won three of those games, 121-111, 127-121 and 129-126. Denver’s lone win came by a 127-107 score in Oklahoma City’s penultimate game, when the result had no bearing on the Thunder’s season.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder Handicap -8.5

Main prediction: Denver lost depth in the offseason. Jokic and Murray remain, but Watson’s departure has left the bench thinner, and that could matter in the Nuggets’ opener. Oklahoma City looked sharp against San Antonio and has home-court advantage here. The pick is Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 at 1.90.

Team total prediction: Denver relies more on scoring close to the basket than San Antonio, which leaned on outside shooting. In the opener, Oklahoma City held the Spurs to 9-for-34 from three and limited their opportunities in the paint with Holmgren back. The Thunder’s defense also looked solid with Wallace starting in place of Dort. The secondary pick is Denver Nuggets team total under 114.5 at 1.90.