Hamburger vs Stuttgart 17 October 2026 Prediction

Hamburg and Stuttgart both enter this match on the back of wins. Hamburg has won two straight and moved up to 12th place with six points from five Bundesliga games. Stuttgart also has six points and beat Slovan Bratislava 3-0 in the Champions League in midweek.

Hamburg Has Improved but Still Concedes Goals

Hamburg opened the season with three straight losses by a combined score of 12-0. Merlin Polzin’s team then beat Cologne 2-1 at home before the international break and followed that with a 3-2 win at Hoffenheim. Hamburg trailed Hoffenheim 2-1 when Bernardo was sent off in the 65th minute. Moffi equalized, and Muheim scored the winner in the fourth minute of stoppage time.

Hamburg’s results have improved, but its defense remains a concern. The team has conceded 15 goals in five league games and has yet to keep a clean sheet. Cologne and Hoffenheim scored three goals between them in Hamburg’s two wins.

Hamburg captain Nicolai Remberg suffered a cruciate ligament injury against Hoffenheim and will be out for several months. Sambi Lokonga has trained on a limited basis since that match, leaving his availability uncertain. Polzin has named Kofi Amoako as a possible replacement for Remberg. Grønbæk has resumed some team training and could return to the squad; he has two assists in four league appearances. Jatta’s status will be decided after final fitness checks.

Stuttgart Creates Chances but Remains Vulnerable Defensively

Stuttgart has won its last two matches. It beat Paderborn 2-0 last weekend for its first Bundesliga away win in six attempts, then won 3-0 at Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League. Stuttgart scored five goals across those games, generated 4.66 xG and put 16 shots on target.

Those two clean sheets do not necessarily indicate an improvement in defense: Stuttgart allowed opponents to generate 2.74 xG. Its 12.98 xGA is among the highest totals in the Bundesliga, exceeded only by Borussia Mönchengladbach (13.04) and Augsburg (14.67). Going forward, Stuttgart has generated 10.06 xG through five league games and has failed to score only against Borussia Dortmund.

Sebastian Hoeneß is waiting on an update about Mittelstädt. The defender finished the match against Paderborn but needed stitches afterward for a cut on his heel. He missed the Champions League game against Slovan but could be available against Hamburg. Nartey and Tomás remain sidelined with injuries.

Hamburg vs Stuttgart Predicted Lineup

Hamburg (3-4-3): Heuer Fernandes; Capaldo, Bornauw, Omari; El Ouahdi, Amoako, Nadir, Møller Wolfe; Vieira, Poulsen, Adeline

Out or doubtful: Daka, Remberg (injured); Mario Vuskovic (suspended); Sambi Lokonga, Grønbæk, Jatta (doubtful)

Manager: Merlin Polzin

Stuttgart (4-2-3-1): Seimen; Vagnoman, Jeltsch, Chabot, Hendriks; Prömel, Stiller; Leweling, Undav, Führich; Demirović

Out or doubtful: Al-Dakhil, Diehl, Malanga, Nartey, Tomás, Zagadou (injured); Mittelstädt (doubtful)

Manager: Sebastian Hoeneß

Referee: Robert Hartmann

Hartmann has averaged 3.55 yellow cards and 23.9 fouls in his last 20 Bundesliga matches. He has also shown two red cards and awarded six penalties in that span.

Hamburg vs Stuttgart Prediction: Hamburg or Draw at 2.00

Main pick: Hamburg has won two straight after losing its first three games. It lost only five home Bundesliga matches last season and beat Stuttgart 2-1 in their previous meeting at Hamburg. Stuttgart is playing its third consecutive away match after a midweek Champions League trip to Slovakia. It has won just one of its last six Bundesliga road games. Our pick is Hamburg or draw at 2.00.

Total goals pick: Hamburg has scored five goals in its last two league games but has not kept a clean sheet this season. Stuttgart generated a combined 4.66 xG against Paderborn and Slovan Bratislava, though its opponents produced 2.74 xG in those matches. Both teams should have scoring opportunities. An additional pick is over 3.5 goals at 1.90.