Werder Bremen vs Paderborn 07 17 October 2026 Prediction

Werder enter their home match on a four-game unbeaten run that has lifted them to seventh place. Paderborn are just above the relegation playoff spot and have struggled to create chances. Can Werder extend their run and keep their first clean sheet of the Bundesliga season?

A Consistent Lineup and a Set-Piece Threat

Werder opened the Bundesliga season with a 4-1 loss to Freiburg but have since gone four matches unbeaten. Last time out, they drew 2-2 with Borussia Dortmund, who had led the league after four games. Werder held off Dortmund for much of the match before conceding in the 80th and 85th minutes. Two late goals then earned Daniel Thioune’s side a point. It was Werder’s first four-game unbeaten league run under their current manager.

Werder scored just six set-piece goals in 34 league games last season, the fewest in the Bundesliga. They already have four in five games this season: three from corners and one from a free kick. Füllkrug has scored three of them and has found the net in four straight Bundesliga matches for the first time. Grüll has provided five assists. Thioune has also named the same starting lineup in each of the last four league games. Nine of Werder’s 10 goals this season have come after halftime.

Pieper’s early substitution in Dortmund raised concerns about Werder’s central defense, but tests found no structural damage. At his October 15 press conference, Thioune said the defender was available for selection and could start. Lynen has resumed some team training but will not be ready for Paderborn. Agu, Alvero, Moussa, Ndiaye, Njinmah, Stage, and Topp also remain out.

Paderborn’s Defensive Approach

Paderborn earned their first league win before the international break, beating Hoffenheim 3-1, but Ralf Kettemann’s side lost 2-0 at home to Stuttgart in their first game back. The match was closer than the score suggests. Paderborn took more shots, 24 to 18, though Stuttgart put more on target, 8 to 6, and led 2.47 to 1.96 in expected goals (xG).

Paderborn spent more time attacking against Stuttgart than they had in previous games, but they also left more space for their opponents. Creating chances remains their main problem. They have generated a league-low 4.64 xG through five games and have failed to score in four of them. Their defense has been steadier: their 8.18 expected goals against (xGA) puts them in the league’s top half by that measure.

Curda suffered a minor fracture in his left hand against Stuttgart, but Paderborn may not need to change their right-sided starter. He has returned to full training and can play with a protective splint. Curda has started all five league games and has one assist. Awortwi-Grant has resumed some team training after a lengthy recovery, but he is not expected to return for this match.

Werder vs Paderborn Predicted Lineup

Werder (4-2-3-1): Hein; Arthur, Pieper, Friedl, Deman; Reger, Reis; Dinkçi, Chuki, Grüll; Füllkrug

Unavailable: Agu, Alvero, Lynen, Moussa, Ndiaye, Njinmah, Stage, Topp (all injured)

Manager: Daniel Thioune

Paderborn (3-5-2): Noll; ter Horst, Scheller, Hansen; Curda, Ulrich, Castañeda, Vidović, Obermair; Marino, Pieringer

Unavailable: Awortwi-Grant, Gayret, Hoffmeier, Klaas (all injured)

Manager: Ralf Kettemann

Referee: Robert Schröder

In his last 20 Bundesliga matches, Schröder has averaged 3.35 yellow cards and 21.7 fouls per game. He has also sent off four players and awarded seven penalties in that span.

Werder vs Paderborn Prediction: Werder Handicap -1.5

Main pick: Even if Paderborn defend deep, Werder can threaten from set pieces, particularly with deliveries to Füllkrug. Pieper’s availability should also allow Thioune to keep his usual defense. If Werder score first, Paderborn will need to push forward and leave space behind. The pick is Werder -1.5 at 2.88.

Additional pick: Paderborn have not scored in either of their away games against Mainz and Dortmund. Werder should be able to limit their possession and protect the space behind players joining the attack, giving them a chance to keep their first league clean sheet of the season. The pick is Paderborn under 0.5 team goals at 2.95.