Newcastle United vs Aston Villa 17 October 2026 Prediction

Newcastle vs Aston Villa is a Premier League Matchweek 7 fixture. Newcastle has scored regularly but struggled defensively. Villa’s attack has improved, though injuries could affect its options on the road.

Newcastle Is Unbeaten at Home but Vulnerable Defensively

Newcastle has not lost at home in the Premier League, drawing 2-2 with Liverpool and Bournemouth and beating Hull City 2-1. It has yet to keep a home clean sheet and has conceded 13 goals in six league games, tied with Bournemouth and Chelsea for the most in the league. Its defensive problems were more apparent in 4-1 road losses to Leeds and Coventry. Newcastle has also scored 10 goals in six matches; only Manchester City, Chelsea, Brighton and Brentford have scored more.

Player availability is another concern. Ewen Jaouen is out injured, while Anthony Elanga, Valentino Livramento, Jacob Ramsey and Bazoumana Toure are questionable. Without Elanga, Newcastle would lose pace in attack. Livramento’s absence would limit its options at fullback. Newcastle will need to avoid the defensive mistakes that Villa has recently been able to punish.

Aston Villa’s Attack Has Improved, but Injuries Remain a Concern

Aston Villa heads to Newcastle in better form. Its 6-0 Champions League win over Fenerbahce extended its unbeaten run to four matches in all competitions. Villa has improved in the Premier League, too. After scoring just once in its first four league games, Unai Emery’s side scored three in a 3-2 win over Tottenham and two in a 2-2 draw with Brentford. Nicolas Jackson has scored in three straight Villa matches, including twice against Fenerbahce.

Villa has conceded 11 goals in six Premier League games, one of the highest totals in the league. Both of its natural left backs are unavailable: Matteo Ruggeri is out for more than a month, and Ian Maatsen is not ready to return. Using Aaron Wan-Bissaka at left back could leave Villa less balanced on that side. Villa also has less recovery time after the Fenerbahce match; Newcastle played its previous game two days earlier. Even so, Villa’s improved attack could take advantage of Newcastle’s defensive errors.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineup

Newcastle (4-2-3-1): Hornicek; Dedic, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Gonzalez, Miley; Murphy, Willock, Barnes; Wissa

Out or questionable: Jaouen (injured); Elanga, Livramento, Ramsey, Toure (questionable)

Manager: Matthias Jaissle

Aston Villa (4-2-3-1): Suzuki; Cash, Lindelof, Mings, Wan-Bissaka; Kamara, Gomes; McGinn, Manzambi, Buendia; Jackson

Out or questionable: Maatsen, Onana, Ruggeri (injured); Cisse, Hemmings, Majo (questionable)

Manager: Unai Emery

Referee: Jarred Gillett

Gillett has averaged 22.5 fouls called and 3.75 yellow cards per game in the Premier League this season. In four matches, he has not issued a red card or awarded a penalty.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction: Aston Villa to Win at 3.10

Main prediction: Aston Villa has won three of its last four matches in all competitions and three straight away games. Newcastle remains unbeaten at home but drew 2-2 with both Bournemouth and Liverpool. Its most recent league game was a 4-1 loss away to newly promoted Coventry. Given the teams’ recent form, Aston Villa double chance (win or draw) at 1.71 is the safer option. The higher-risk pick is Aston Villa to win at 3.10.

Goals prediction: Newcastle continues to score but has struggled defensively. Five of its eight matches in all competitions have featured at least four goals. Each of Villa’s last four competitive games has also produced at least four goals. With both teams conceding regularly, over 3.5 total goals at 2.40 is another option.