Schalke vs Mainz 17 October 2026 Prediction

Schalke has neither scored nor conceded at home this season. Mainz, meanwhile, has won both of its away games, scoring nine goals. After five rounds, Schalke is 13th with five points, while Mainz is eighth with seven. Can Urs Fischer’s side become the first to score at Schalke this season?

Schalke’s Attack Has Struggled

Schalke came close to taking a point at Freiburg in the last round. The game was tied at halftime, and Freiburg later went down to 10 men. Schalke failed to make the advantage count and conceded a late goal. The result was fair: Miron Muslić’s side did not put a shot on target, even with the extra man, and generated just 0.32 xG (expected goals) for the match. Freiburg created more chances, recording 1.15 xG and four shots on target.

Schalke’s attack has struggled early in the season. The team has scored four goals in five league games and has yet to score at home. Its 6.43 xG ranks above only four Bundesliga teams. At the other end, goalkeeper Karius has made 27 saves, helping Schalke limit opponents to six goals despite allowing 9.55 xGA (expected goals against).

Schalke’s latest injury concern is Moussa Sylla, who hurt his left leg at Freiburg and will miss the Mainz game. Dzeko, Adamu and Hwang are candidates to replace him, but Muslić has not settled on a starter. Lasme and Ljubičić are questionable; Ljubičić was still training individually on October 15. Højlund and Siebeking are out. Gantenbein has returned from an ankle injury, scored on his Bundesliga debut and is in contention to start again.

Mainz’s Away Form

Mainz lost 4-3 at home to Bayer Leverkusen in the last round. After conceding two early goals, Mainz tied the game before halftime through two goals from Caci. Fischer’s side conceded twice more in the second half and scored its third goal late on.

Mainz’s five league games have produced 23 goals, an average of more than four per game. That includes a scoreless draw with Paderborn in the opener. Mainz ranks fourth in the Bundesliga with 12.15 xG. It has also won both away games this season, outscoring its opponents 9-3, and has won four straight league road games.

Silas has resumed some team drills after a serious leg injury but is not ready to face Schalke. Zentner and Ruoppi are also out, while Kohr continues his recovery. Widmer is available. Posch missed Tuesday’s training as his workload was managed, but the Austrian defender is fit to play.

Schalke vs Mainz Predicted Lineup

Schalke (3-4-3): Karius – Kuruçay, Katić, Wöber – Gantenbein, Tanaka, El-Faouzi, Gosens – Karaman, Dzeko, Ushish

Out or questionable: Siebeking, Højlund, Sylla (injured); Lasme, Ljubičić (questionable)

Manager: Miron Muslić

Mainz (3-5-2): Schwolow – Posch, Gruber, Potulski – Caci, Amiri, Sano, Lee, Mwene – Becker, Tietz

Out: Kohr, Ruoppi, Silas, Zentner (all injured)

Manager: Urs Fischer

Referee: Richard Hempel

This will be Hempel’s second Bundesliga assignment. Over his last 20 games in the 2. Bundesliga, he has averaged 5.45 yellow cards and 27.15 fouls per game. He has also shown five red cards and awarded four penalties in that span.

Schalke vs Mainz Prediction: Mainz to Win at 2.28

Main prediction: Schalke has scored only four goals in five rounds and will now be without Sylla. Mainz continues to create chances even in defeat: it generated 3.13 xG in its 4-3 loss to Bayer Leverkusen. Its four straight league away wins have matched a club record. We expect Fischer’s side to make better use of its chances. Our pick is Mainz to win at 2.28.

Goals prediction: Mainz has scored nine goals in two away league games this season, more than any other Bundesliga team. Tietz has scored five goals across his last four league road games. We expect Mainz to create chances at Schalke and take Mainz over 1.5 team goals at 1.90.