Milan vs Atalanta 18 October 2026 Prediction

AC Milan are unbeaten in Serie A under Ruben Amorim, but extending that run in Round 7 will not be easy. Atalanta have won five of the teams’ last seven meetings, with the other two ending in draws.

AC Milan’s Form

AC Milan produced their best performance under Amorim in the Europa League this week. The Portuguese manager returned to a familiar formation and made several changes to his lineup, but Milan still created plenty of chances against Red Bull Salzburg. They won 4-0, handing Salzburg their first defeat of the 2026/27 season. Milan are also one of four teams still unbeaten in Serie A, despite facing Juventus (1-1) and Lazio (2-2).

Nineteen-year-old Alphadjo Cisse scored three goals against Salzburg, becoming the youngest Italian player to do so in a match in a major European competition. He has made a strong case to start against Atalanta. Cisse and Diego Moreira could pose problems on the left, with Strahinja Pavlovic also able to push forward. Milan’s injury list is limited to Matteo Gabbia, Alexis Saelemaekers and third-choice goalkeeper Pietro Terracciano. Gabbia and Saelemaekers have not been regular starters under Amorim.

Atalanta’s Injury List

Atalanta also won in Europe this week, beating Cypriot side Pafos 3-1 in the Conference League. They had previously defeated Venezia 3-1 in Serie A. Those results are encouraging, but Atalanta have lost to their stronger opponents this season, including Roma (2-1) and Juventus (2-0). Their average expected goals against (xGA) ranks among the five worst in Serie A. Even relegation-zone Venezia generated 2.47 xG against them.

Atalanta have significant selection problems ahead of their trip to Milan, particularly in defense. None of Maurizio Sarri’s first-choice center backs, Odilon Kossounou, Isak Hien and Giorgio Scalvini, are available. Sarri is likely to start Thomas Kristensen, a new backup, alongside Sead Kolasinac, who is better suited to playing on the left. His attacking options are limited, too. Giacomo Raspadori sustained a muscle injury against Pafos, while Eljif Elmas is suspended after his red card in the previous Serie A round.

AC Milan vs Atalanta: Predicted Lineups

AC Milan (3-4-2-1): Maignan; Gila, De Winter, Pavlovic; Chukwueze, Modric, Rabiot, Moreira; Pulisic, Cisse; Ramos.

Unavailable: Saelemaekers, Gabbia, P. Terracciano (all injured).

Manager: Ruben Amorim.

Atalanta (4-2-3-1): Carnesecchi; Zappacosta, Kristensen, Kolasinac, Bernasconi; Gaetano, Ederson; De Ketelaere, Samardzic, Rowe; Krstovic.

Unavailable: Hien, Kossounou, Raspadori, K. Sulemana, Pompei, Scalvini, Kessie (all injured); Elmas (suspended).

Manager: Maurizio Sarri.

AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction: AC Milan Handicap -1.5

Main pick: Sarri’s system has yet to produce convincing results against stronger opponents. Atalanta have struggled defensively in those matches, and their absences at center back make this a difficult matchup against an AC Milan attack that scored four times in midweek. Atalanta have also generated just 0.64 xG per Serie A away game while allowing 2.13 xGA. The pick is AC Milan -1.5 at 2.94.

Goals pick: AC Milan have kept clean sheets in both of their home league games so far and conceded only once in their last three competitive matches. Atalanta have scored just one goal across two Serie A away games. Atalanta under 0.5 team goals is a higher-risk option at 2.85.