Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal 18 October 2026 Prediction

Nottingham Forest has created plenty of chances but sits close to the relegation zone after six matches. Arsenal has been more effective at turning difficult games into wins. At the City Ground, Forest’s finishing could prove costly against a side that has been getting results.

Nottingham Forest: Plenty of Chances, Few Goals

Oliver Glasner’s team played perhaps its best half of the season away to Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park, yet lost 3-1. Forest scored first and had several chances to extend its lead. It produced 2.42 expected goals (xG) and put four shots on target in the first 45 minutes, but went into halftime behind. The pattern has persisted: Forest has scored just five goals from 106 shots and 10.5 xG across six matches. Creating chances has not been the problem. Too many promising attacks end with an extra touch or a save.

Glasner is unlikely to move away from his 3-4-2-1, with Muñoz and Williams providing width and opening space for Ndoye and Gibbs-White. Gibbs-White remains central to Forest’s attack, having created 17 chances, including seven big chances for teammates, in six matches. A muscle injury makes him questionable, however. Squad depth is another concern. Milenković is dealing with a bruise, Savona remains sidelined, and Igor Jesus is out injured, leaving Glasner with fewer options if he needs to change the attack during the match.

Arsenal: Strong Defense and Second-Half Goals

The 3-0 defeat to Brighton remains the champions’ only loss. Since the international break, Arsenal has started slowly against Leeds and Lille but improved in the second half of both games. It came from behind to beat Leeds 2-1 in the league, then increased the tempo after halftime in a 3-0 win over Lille. Arsenal held a 2.58-to-0.68 xG advantage against Leeds and limited Lille to 0.40 xG. Across six Premier League matches, it has allowed just 5.09 expected goals against (xGA).

Arsenal’s injury list is not long, but it affects important positions. Saliba has resumed individual training but is not ready to play, Hincapié remains unavailable, and Zubimendi is questionable. Tzolis is another notable absence after an impressive club debut. Konsa and Gabriel are the likely center-back pairing, while Rice could play alongside Guimarães or Lewis-Skelly in midfield. Arteta has more options up front: Saka and Odegaard began the Lille match on the bench, Havertz is working his way back from a muscle injury, and Eze, Madueke and Gyökeres offer alternatives.

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Predicted Lineup

Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1): Sels; Aina, Diomande, Murillo; Muñoz, Schlager, McAtee, Williams; Ndoye, Hudson-Odoi; Delap

Team news: Savona, Igor Jesus (injured); Milenković, Gibbs-White (questionable)

Manager: Oliver Glasner

Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Raya; White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Guimarães; Saka, Odegaard, Eze; Havertz

Team news: Saliba, Hincapié, Tzolis (injured); Zubimendi (questionable)

Manager: Mikel Arteta

Referee: Michael Oliver

Oliver was among the Premier League’s six most lenient referees last season, averaging 3.1 yellow cards and 22.9 fouls per match. He issued two red cards and awarded two penalties in 29 games. So far this season, he has averaged 2.8 yellow cards and 23 fouls per match.

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Prediction: Arsenal Handicap -1.5

Main prediction: Forest has taken one point from three home matches, failing to score against Leeds (0-1), Tottenham (0-0) and Coventry (0-1). Arsenal has scored seven of its 10 Premier League goals after halftime. Its squad depth gives Arteta options, including Gyökeres, Havertz, Madueke and Merino, as Forest’s defense tires. An outright Arsenal win at 1.67 is the safer option, but Arsenal -1.5 at 2.59 is the selection. Arsenal’s second-half scoring record gives it a reasonable chance of winning by at least two goals.

Goals prediction: Forest’s five goals are well below its 10.5 xG, with finishing particularly poor at home. Including cup play, it has gone four straight home matches without scoring despite creating enough chances to break that run. Arsenal’s 10 goals from 10.74 xG are more in line with its chances, and it has scored at least twice in four of its last five matches. The additional pick is over 2.5 goals at 1.97.