Real Madrid vs Sevilla 18 October 2026 Prediction

Real Madrid has won every home game this season, while Sevilla is unbeaten on the road. Madrid is also unbeaten in its last 15 La Liga meetings with Sevilla, dating back to September 2018 (13 wins, two draws). It will look to extend that run and hand Sevilla its first away defeat.

Real Madrid Returns Home After Comeback

Real Madrid returns to the Santiago Bernabéu after overturning a 3-1 deficit in Rome with three goals after the 82nd minute. The win gives José Mourinho’s team a boost ahead of games against Sevilla, Leipzig, and Barcelona. Madrid has won every home game this season, including matches against Inter (2-1) and Villarreal (1-0) in which it did not play at its best.

Rodrygo, Éder Militão, and Raúl Asencio remain sidelined. Ferland Mendy has returned to team training but is not yet fully fit. Vinícius is the most significant absence for the Sevilla game. He received a four-game suspension after being sent off against Villarreal: two games for pulling an opponent’s hair and two for aggressively protesting the referee’s decision. Real Madrid appealed to the Royal Spanish Football Federation (RFEF), which rejected the appeal, and then took the case to the Administrative Tribunal for Sport (TAD). Vinícius is likely to miss both this match and El Clásico. His absence could mean more playing time for Yan Diomande, who helped Madrid beat Villarreal.

Sevilla Has Struggled Against Top Teams

Sevilla has lost just twice in eight La Liga games, but both defeats came against Atlético Madrid and Barcelona by 3-1 scores. It also dropped points against Levante in the previous round, conceding in the 10th minute of stoppage time to draw 3-3. After consecutive 1-0 wins over Valencia and Deportivo, Sevilla conceded six goals in its next two games. Barcelona accounted for three of those goals; conceding three to Levante is a greater concern ahead of the trip to Madrid.

Sevilla also lost three players in the Levante game. Isaac Romero is suspended. He rarely starts but plays regularly and has scored twice in La Liga this season. Manager Luis García Plaza still has Robby Ure and the fit-again Lucas Stassin available up front. Starting winger Miguel Sierra, who has played in all eight league games, injured his shoulder and needs surgery. Jon Guridi is also out injured, leaving Sevilla with fewer options in attack and midfield.

Real Madrid vs Sevilla Predicted Lineups

Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Konaté, Huijsen, Cucurella; Tchouaméni, Valverde; Güler, Bellingham, Diomande; Mbappé

Unavailable: Mendy, Militão, Rodrygo, Asencio (injuries); Vinícius (suspension)

Manager: José Mourinho

Sevilla (4-1-4-1): Vlachodimos; Iglesias, Castrín, Salas, Suazo; Agoumé; Ejuke, Peque, Fofana, Correa; Ure

Unavailable: Sierra, Marcão, Guridi (injuries); Romero (suspension). Questionable: Kochorashvili

Manager: Luis García Plaza

Real Madrid vs Sevilla Prediction: Real Madrid Handicap -2.5

Main prediction: Madrid has won all four of its La Liga home games, three by at least three goals. Sevilla’s unbeaten away record needs context: Athletic Club had a player sent off in the 11th minute of Sevilla’s 3-1 win. Sevilla has also drawn with Espanyol (1-1) and Levante (3-3), conceded six goals in its last two league games, and lost three players ahead of this match. Madrid needs to keep pace with Barcelona before El Clásico. Real Madrid -1.5 is a lower-risk option at 1.70, but the main pick is Real Madrid -2.5 at 2.50.

Goals prediction: Sevilla has had trouble creating chances away from home. It produced less than 1.00 expected goals (xG) against both Espanyol and Deportivo, and just 1.26 xG against Athletic Club despite playing with a man advantage from early in the match. Romero and Sierra, who have scored four of Sevilla’s league goals between them, are now unavailable. Madrid has conceded only twice in four league home games and kept clean sheets in its last three meetings with Sevilla. The additional pick is Both Teams to Score: No at 1.90.