Union vs Borussia Dortmund 17 October 2026 Prediction

Union Berlin earned its first Bundesliga win of the season last time out, beating Elversberg 1-0 to end a three-game losing streak. The club remains 16th after five matches with four points. Borussia Dortmund dropped points for the first time this season in a 2-2 home draw with Werder Bremen. Dortmund is second with 13 points, behind Freiburg on goal difference.

Union Berlin's Defensive Problems

Union Berlin beat Elversberg 1-0 last time out, ending a run of three Bundesliga losses. Substitute Livan Burcu scored the winner in the 81st minute. Union outshot Elversberg 19-7 and held a 1.13-0.24 advantage in xG. After conceding 17 goals in its previous four league matches, Union needed that improvement at the back. One game is not enough to establish a trend, though.

Elversberg created little against Union, but the defense remains a concern. Union's 17 goals conceded through four games were the most in the league at that point; Borussia Mönchengladbach has since conceded 18 through five. Mauro Lustrinelli's side also has an xGA of 11.07, with only four Bundesliga teams posting a worse figure.

Ilić is still recovering from an appendectomy and has not returned to full training. Markgraf is out with a serious knee injury. Latte Lath and Nsoki are questionable after muscle issues, while Juranović is working his way back after an illness. Juranović's absence would affect Union's buildup play: the right back has two assists in three league appearances this season.

Borussia Dortmund's Attacking Output

Borussia Dortmund let a 2-0 lead slip in the final minutes of its 2-2 home draw with Werder Bremen, dropping points for the first time in the league this season. Niko Kovač's side also lost 1-0 away to Bodø/Glimt in the Champions League league phase during the week.

Dortmund has scored 11 goals in five Bundesliga games, a total surpassed by six clubs. Its 8.96 xG ranks 10th in the league. Against Bodø/Glimt, Dortmund managed nine shots and 0.79 xG, failing to score for the first time this season.

Schlotterbeck was rested in Norway to manage his workload and is expected to return against Union Berlin. Ryerson and Chukwuemeka both played in the Champions League match. Ryerson is in contention to start on the right, while Kovač has yet to decide whether Chukwuemeka will start. Mané was back in the squad for the trip to Norway after an injury. Can, Konstantelias and Lerma remain out.

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Predicted Lineup

Union Berlin (4-4-2): Rønnow; Haberer, Van den Bosch, Uduokhai, Rothe; Aebischer, Schäfer, Khedira, Imeri; Jeong, Skarke

Out or questionable: Markgraf (injury), Ilić (recovering from surgery); Latte Lath, Nsoki and Juranović (questionable)

Manager: Mauro Lustrinelli

Borussia Dortmund (3-4-3): Kobel; Gadou, Anton, Schlotterbeck; Ryerson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Svensson; Nwaneri, Guirassy, Beier

Out: Can, Konstantelias and Lerma (injuries)

Manager: Niko Kovač

Referee: Daniel Schlager

Schlager has averaged 3.55 yellow cards and 20.65 fouls per game across his last 20 Bundesliga matches. He has also shown five red cards and awarded four penalties in that span.

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: Union Berlin to Win or Draw

Main prediction: Union Berlin defended more effectively against Elversberg, and Lustrinelli intends to keep the same back line. Dortmund faces a quick turnaround after its trip to Norway. Union should be competitive at home and has a reasonable chance of taking at least a point. The pick is Union Berlin to win or draw at 2.42.

Goals prediction: Neither team has generated many high-quality chances so far: Union has 5.69 xG, while Dortmund has 8.96. Union limited Elversberg's opportunities last time out, and Dortmund produced just 0.79 xG in Norway. If Union stays compact without the ball, this could be a low-scoring game. The additional pick is under 2.5 goals at 2.50.