Roma vs Genoa 17 October 2026 Prediction

Former Roma midfielder Daniele De Rossi returns to the Stadio Olimpico as Genoa’s manager. His team will try to hand Roma its first Serie A defeat of 2026/27, but Genoa has lost its last four away games against Roma.

Roma Has Performed Better in Serie A Than in Europe

For the first time, four Italian clubs lost on the same Champions League matchday, and Roma was one of them. Roma came closer to winning than the others: it held a two-goal lead over Real Madrid in the 82nd minute. Real Madrid then scored three times from corners to win 4-3. That matters ahead of the Genoa game. De Rossi’s side ranked second in Serie A for goals from set pieces last season, behind only champion Inter.

Roma is unbeaten through six Serie A rounds, though injuries could affect its league form. Manu Koné and Paulo Dybala were injured against Real Madrid, leaving Roma at risk of losing a key central midfielder and its main playmaker. Starting goalkeeper Mile Svilar was already sidelined and is not expected back until November. Donyell Malen, who scored twice against Real Madrid and leads Serie A in goals this season, will also miss the Genoa game.

Genoa Improved After the International Break

Genoa went into the international break without a Serie A win. Its first match back was its best performance of the season so far, a 2-1 victory over Fiorentina. Genoa moved away from its usual three-center-back formation, made more use of the wings and scored twice in the opening 15 minutes. It defended too deep after halftime, however, and allowed Fiorentina back into the game.

Genoa is missing midfielders Amorim, Sow and Meikhtri, but using Hamed Traorè centrally and Junior Messias farther forward worked against Fiorentina. A similar setup looks likely in Rome. Set pieces, particularly deliveries aimed at defender Johan Vásquez, could be Genoa’s best attacking option. Vásquez has scored twice this fall, earning Genoa a 1-1 league draw with Frosinone and a 1-0 Coppa Italia win over Südtirol. Stephan El Shaarawy also faces his former club, for which he made 348 appearances.

Roma vs Genoa Predicted Lineup

Roma (3-4-2-1): Gollini; Ghilardi, Balerdi, Hermoso; Lulli, de Roon, Pisilli, Wesley; Soulé, Mora; Castro

Unavailable: Cristante, Koné and Svilar (injured); Malen (suspended after a red card); Dybala (doubtful)

Manager: Gian Piero Gasperini

Genoa (4-2-3-1): Bijlow; Ehizibue, Marcandalli, Østigård, Vásquez; Traorè, Frendrup; Ellertsson, Messias, El Shaarawy; Osmajić

Unavailable: Amorim, Nuredini, Venturino, Sow, Colombo and Meikhtri (injured)

Manager: Daniele De Rossi

Roma vs Genoa Prediction: Genoa to Win or Draw

Main prediction: Roma started the season strongly with man-to-man pressing and good performances from Dybala and Malen. It has since gone three competitive matches without a win and recorded a lower expected goals (xG) total than its opponent in each one. Genoa, meanwhile, showed improvement against Fiorentina. Roma’s struggles defending set pieces, its absences and Genoa’s extra rest all favor the visitors. The pick is Genoa to win or draw at 2.88.

Goals prediction: Genoa is likely to play more cautiously away from home than it did against Fiorentina. With key attackers missing, Roma may also find chances hard to create against a side that has allowed no more than 0.80 expected goals against (xGA) in each of its last two league games. Under 2.5 goals at 2.17 is the additional pick.