Everton vs Chelsea 17 October 2026 Prediction

Everton and Chelsea enter the round level on 10 points, but their results have come in different ways. David Moyes’s Everton are unbeaten and have been reliable at home. Chelsea have scored freely while conceding regularly. Everton won this fixture 3-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium in the spring, a result Chelsea will want to avoid repeating.

Everton: Unbeaten So Far

Everton have two wins and four draws in the Premier League, with just five goals conceded. They came close to another win at Hull, recording 65% possession, 15 shots and 1.68 expected goals (xG), but missed six big chances and made two defensive errors in a 2-2 draw. Nearly half their attacking threat came from set pieces. That could matter against a Chelsea side that conceded from a corner even in its 5-1 win over Bournemouth. At Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have taken seven points from nine, outscoring opponents 5-2 and keeping two clean sheets.

Moyes is likely to retain his 4-2-3-1 and compact mid-block. After winning possession, Everton will look to play early balls in behind for Grealish and Johnson. Dewsbury-Hall can support attacks with runs from midfield, while Barry has six goals in all competitions. Mykolenko’s fitness is the main lineup question. If he cannot play, Branthwaite is expected to stay at left back, with Keane alongside Tarkowski in central defense. Norgaard and Röhl are back in the squad, giving Moyes more midfield options.

Chelsea: Goals at Both Ends

Chelsea followed a 3-0 loss to Brentford with a 5-1 win over Bournemouth, though the scoreline was more convincing than the performance. Chelsea lost the xG battle 1.10 to 1.38, and their five goals came from shots worth a combined 0.75 xG. They have scored 15 goals from 8.4 xG through six league games, the largest positive gap in the league. They have also conceded 13 goals.

Xabi Alonso’s team has started quickly, scoring by the seventh minute in five of its six league games. Palmer and Rogers will try to find space between Everton’s lines, while Neto offers width on the right. Caicedo’s return has strengthened the midfield, but James may miss out again because of a knee issue. Gittens is out with an ankle injury, and Emegha’s status remains uncertain despite his return to training.

Everton vs Chelsea Predicted Lineup

Everton (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Maitland-Niles, Tarkowski, Keane, Branthwaite; Garner, Armstrong; Johnson, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish; Barry.

Availability: Mykolenko (questionable).

Manager: David Moyes.

Chelsea (3-4-2-1): Martinez; Acheampong, Lacroix, Colwill; Neto, Henderson, Caicedo, Chavarria; Palmer, Rogers; Joao Pedro.

Availability: Gittens (out); James and Emegha (questionable).

Manager: Xabi Alonso.

Referee: Paul Tierney

Tierney averaged 3.33 yellow cards and 20.17 fouls per match in the Premier League last season. Across 12 games, he issued two red cards and awarded one penalty. His three matches this season have produced one, three and five yellow cards, respectively.

Everton vs Chelsea Prediction: Everton to Win at 3.15

Main prediction: Chelsea’s 5-1 win over Bournemouth may overstate their form: they converted chances at an unusually high rate despite trailing on xG. They also lost their previous two away games, 2-1 to Arsenal and 3-0 to Brentford. Everton have taken seven points from nine at home, including a 2-2 draw with Manchester United. Chelsea’s high defensive line should leave space for Grealish and Johnson when Everton regain possession. Chelsea have won only one of their last nine visits to Everton and lost here 3-0 in March. Everton to win or draw at 1.73 is the safer bet; an Everton win at 3.15 offers a higher-risk option.

Goals prediction: Chelsea have conceded at least twice in five of their six league games. Their away results include a 3-2 win over Fulham and losses to Arsenal (2-1) and Brentford (3-0). Everton have scored twice at home against both Crystal Palace and Manchester United, and scored twice at Hull last round. Chelsea’s defensive problems on set pieces and counterattacks give Everton opportunities. The pick is Everton team total over 1.5 goals at 2.34.