Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid 12 May 2026 Prediction

Atletico have almost lost interest in the remaining La Liga matches. The visitors have already secured a Champions League place for next season, while the title race has long been over for them.

Osasuna, on the other hand, still have something to play for. They are only two points away from the European places. In the first half of the season, Alessio Lisci’s team lost 0-1 in Madrid. Can the hosts get revenge and move closer to their goal?

Osasuna Have Lost Their Rhythm

Osasuna are going through a difficult stretch, with three losses in their last four league matches. Still, there is context: two of those games were away from home, where the Reds have looked clearly weaker, while one of the two home matches was against Barcelona (1-2). The table remains tight, and Spain’s additional European spot increases Lisci’s team’s chances of reaching the top seven.

At home, Osasuna have been strong, losing only three of 17 matches. The team has been efficient with its chances at El Sadar. By xG, Osasuna are not even among the top 10 home teams in the league, averaging 1.48 expected goals per match, but they have still scored 29 goals. That finishing efficiency is their main strength at home.

Atletico Are Finishing the Season Without Urgency

Atletico’s motivation appears low, and the previous round showed that clearly with a 0-1 home loss to Celta. The result is even more concerning because it came at the Metropolitano, where Atletico had dropped points in only three of 17 league matches before that. But Simeone’s team simply does not have much left to play for.

The away numbers are even more concerning. Five wins in 17 road league matches is not a strong return for a club of Atletico’s level. Their away xG is only 1.29, and their actual scoring output is even lower, with 20 goals across the whole league season. The decline is also clear in recent results, with three losses in the last four away matches.

Key Things to Know

• Osasuna have scored in the second half in five of their last six home league matches.
• Both teams have scored in eight of Osasuna’s last nine La Liga matches at El Sadar.
• Osasuna have conceded a second-half goal against Atletico in 14 of the last 15 head-to-head meetings.

Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Predicted Lineup

Osasuna (4-2-3-1): Fernandez — Rosier, Catena, Boyomo, Galan — Torro, Moncayola — Garcia, Oroz, Moro — Budimir

Out: V. Munoz (injured), Herrera (suspended)

Manager: Alessio Lisci

Atletico Madrid (4-2-3-1): Oblak — Molina, Pubill, Hancko, Ruggeri — Koke, Llorente — Almada, Griezmann, Lookman — Sorloth

Out: Barrios, Gonzalez, Cardoso (all injured), Alvarez, G. Simeone, Gimenez (all doubtful), Baena (yellow-card suspension)

Manager: Diego Simeone

Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Osasuna to Win at 2.59

• Main Pick: Osasuna have looked strong at home, losing only once in their last 11 home league matches. Alessio Lisci’s team can trouble top opponents, as shown by their 2-1 win over Real Madrid. Atletico are in a clear slump and have lost much of their motivation. Away from home, they have been weak throughout the season, and recently they even lost to Elche (2-3) and Sevilla (1-2), both of whom are fighting for survival. In this form, the visitors may struggle to compete. The pick is Osasuna to win at 2.59.
• Goals Pick: Atletico have been playing more open soccer late in the La Liga season, conceding eight goals across their last four away rounds. At the same time, their attack still has quality and has scored in each of their last five away league matches. Osasuna are dangerous at home, with 29 goals in 17 La Liga matches. The logical play is Both Teams to Score: Yes at 1.72.
• Correct Score Pick: We expect Lisci’s team to win at El Sadar. The hosts average 1.7 goals per home La Liga match, but they still make defensive mistakes. They have conceded 20 goals in 17 home league rounds, so Atletico’s attack has a realistic chance to score. The correct score pick is 2-1 to Osasuna at 9.00.