Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid 29 August 2026 Prediction

Sevilla have been one of the standout teams early in the season, winning both matches and scoring five goals. Atletico Madrid are also unbeaten, although they followed a 2-0 victory over Malaga with a 2-2 draw against Villarreal. They now visit the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan, where they lost last season.

Sevilla Have Benefited from Opponents' Mistakes

Sevilla had a solid preseason, losing only two of seven matches and conceding five goals. They then opened the league campaign with two wins, although circumstances played a significant role. The Andalusian side started poorly against Rayo but recovered after halftime and secured a 2-1 victory with two penalty goals. The result at San Mames was even more convincing at 3-1. Athletic went down to 10 men in the 11th minute, but the Basque side still caused problems for Luis Garcia's team. Sevilla had only 25% possession and attempted just two shots in the second half. Their six points are more impressive than the performances themselves. Opponent errors had a major impact on both matches.

Sevilla's personnel situation is improving ahead of the third round. Kike Salas has completed his suspension following the red card against Rayo, while Ruben Vargas has returned to full training after a knee problem kept him out against Athletic. However, the Swiss player's future remains uncertain amid transfer speculation. Luis Garcia can also rely on his bench. Ejuke and Romero came on after halftime in Bilbao and both scored. Despite the two victories, the Sevilla manager admitted that his team still has room for improvement. That will be important against Atletico Madrid, as Sevilla may not benefit from the same favorable circumstances this time.

Atletico Madrid Are Maximizing Limited Chances

Atletico Madrid faced strong opposition during the summer. They lost 2-1 to Manchester United and 3-1 to Manchester City before beating Marseille 2-1 in their final friendly. Diego Simeone's team struggled for long stretches against Malaga in the opening La Liga round and did not score until the 70th minute. Substitutes Lee Kang-in and Alex Baena secured the 2-0 victory. Atletico then drew 2-2 with Villarreal, equalizing despite being reduced to 10 men while trailing 2-1. Chance creation remains a concern. Atletico failed to reach 1.00 xG in either match, so their four goals significantly exceed the quality of the opportunities they created. Their finishing will be tested in the first road game of the season.

Atletico's limited attacking numbers are partly related to their problems at center forward. Sorloth is still recovering from an injury, while Julian Alvarez's situation remains uncertain. The Argentine came off the bench against Villarreal but was loudly booed by the home supporters amid reports of a possible departure. He also missed two consecutive practices before this match. Simeone has therefore used Lookman through the middle. The manager has acknowledged that it is not Lookman's natural position and that Atletico need a true center forward to compete for major trophies.

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Predicted Lineup

Sevilla (4-2-3-1): Vlachodimos; Iglesias, Sangante, Salas, Suazo; Agoume, Guridi; Sierra, Peque, Oso; Yur

Out/Doubtful: Marcao, Gonzalez, Vargas (all doubtful)

Manager: Luis Garcia Plaza

Atletico Madrid (4-4-2): Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Grimaldo; Giuliano Simeone, Koke, Barrios, Baena; Lookman, Lee Kang-in

Out/Doubtful: Romero, Alvarez (both doubtful); Sorloth (injured); O. Vargas, Lemar (manager's decision); Le Normand (suspended)

Manager: Diego Simeone

Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Atletico Madrid to Win at 2.10

Main prediction: Sevilla's six points do not fully reflect the quality of their performances. They had to come from behind against Rayo and needed two penalties to win 2-1. Against Athletic, an early red card significantly affected the match. Even with a numerical advantage, Sevilla had only 25% possession in the second half.

Atletico Madrid are also below their best and have created few clear chances, but their lineup should be stronger in Seville, with Llorente and Baena potentially starting. The 2-2 draw against Villarreal should also provide confidence after Atletico equalized with 10 men. The main selection is Atletico Madrid to win at 2.10.

Goals prediction: Both teams have scored more goals than their chance quality would suggest. Atletico Madrid failed to reach 1.00 xG against either Malaga or Villarreal but scored four times. They also have issues at center forward, with Sorloth recovering from injury, uncertainty surrounding Alvarez, and Lookman playing out of position. Sevilla have also converted their chances at an unusually high rate, scoring five goals from eight shots on target. That level of finishing is unlikely to continue, making under 2.5 goals at 1.87 the secondary selection.